【HashChain News | Macro Flash】

US "Temporarily Permits" Iranian Oil for 30 Days, Trump Mentions Orderly End to War: Stabilizing Oil Prices or US Debt?

According to the US Treasury, the United States approved a limited authorization valid for 30 days, allowing Iranian crude oil and petroleum products already in transit to complete delivery and sales, expected to release approximately 140 million barrels of supply to the global market. From a macro perspective, this appears more like an emergency hedging operation targeting oil prices and inflation.

I. Risk Control
This authorization has clear restrictions:
• Limited to already-shipped oil
• Time window of only 30 days
• Does not involve new exports or long-term policy adjustments

This means the US has not changed its sanctions framework against Iran, but rather temporarily released inventory to stabilize market expectations amid escalating Middle East tensions.

II. Core Logic: Oil Prices → Inflation → Interest Rates → US Debt
The true main line of current global macroeconomics is not the Middle East itself, but the following chain:
Rising oil prices → Inflation rebound → Federal Reserve unable to cut rates → US debt interest rates remain elevated → Fiscal pressure intensifies

In other words:
👉 What the US really needs to stabilize is not the Middle East, but inflation and interest rate trajectories
If oil prices rapidly break through $100 due to geopolitical conflict, it will directly disrupt the Fed's rate-cutting schedule, further worsening the already high US debt interest burden.

III. Why Act Now?
Recent Middle East tensions carry escalation risks:
• Red Sea shipping disruption
• Potential threats to the Strait of Hormuz
• Iran-Israel conflict spillover risks

Against this backdrop, the US chose to release supply ahead of time to suppress oil price expectations, rather than passively respond after the fact.
This is a typical "expectations management."

IV. Market Impact
Short-term:
Oil price increases are suppressed (bearish for crude)
Inflation expectations ease (bullish for risk assets)
Crypto market sentiment remains positive

Medium-term key variables:
• If conflict remains manageable → risk assets continue rally
• If energy facilities attacked → oil prices surge → macro liquidity tightens
• If Strait of Hormuz blocked → global liquidity shock (systemic risk)

V. HashChain News Perspective
This is a typical macroeconomic intervention by the United States.
In the current cycle:
👉 Oil prices are the Federal Reserve's "shadow interest rate"
👉 And interest rates are the lifeline of the US debt system

By allowing Iranian oil to flow into markets short-term, the US is essentially buying itself time.
This reluctant policy is to avoid financial system stress ahead of schedule.
What the US is releasing is not Iranian oil, but a "liquidity valve" for hedging inflation.