Gate News reported that as of March 24, the latest data from Polymarket shows that the market odds for a US-Iran ceasefire by March 31 are 14%, by April 15 are 34%, and by May 31 are 57%. The prediction market has already exceeded $39.85 million in trading volume.

Gate News Report: As of March 24, the latest data from Polymarket shows that market odds indicate a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady in April this year, a 3% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike, and only a 1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut.

Gate News reports that on March 21, Polymarket prediction market data shows that the probability of Backpack token's FDV (fully diluted valuation) exceeding $300 million on its first day of listing has dropped to 58%. Regarding other odds, the probability of FDV exceeding $200 million is 91%, exceeding $100 million is 99%, and breaking through $500 million is approximately 13%.

Gate News: On March 17, Polymarket prediction market data shows that the market odds of the Federal Reserve cutting rates once by 25 basis points this year stand at 30%, the probability of no rate cut is 23%, and the probability of cutting rates twice for a total of 50 basis points is 23%. The prediction market's trading volume currently exceeds $10.25 million.

Polymarket prediction markets show that an account has bet $90,000 on the Iranian regime collapsing before April 30 and June 30, with current odds at 23.5¢. There are clear factional divisions within Iran, Supreme Leader Khamenei has not made public appearances, and there is an emphasis on a hardline foreign policy stance.

Political market data shows that a certain address is betting on a ceasefire between the United States and Iran before May, with current odds at 39.5%. The US is demanding Iran stop its attack operations, and if Iran cuts off energy supplies, it will face a strong counterattack. Iran's new leader emphasizes maintaining stability and demands that the US cease military operations. This trader may be conducting swing trades based on changing circumstances.