Recently, over the past month, the Nasdaq has been oscillating between 24,000 and 25,000 points without experiencing significant fluctuations, indicating that the market, while acknowledging war developments, has not yet reached a panic stage. After all, everyone knows that while the war has driven up oil prices last week, which in turn has caused repeated inflation, the war is unlikely to last too long. Moreover, investors currently do not expect the Fed to cut rates before Powell steps down.
So although the market seems quite active, the bigger risks are not currently from the war itself. Of course, if the war escalates, risks will also escalate. A nuclear war would be the top-tier risk. Currently, the greatest risk may still lie in the pessimistic expectations caused by high interest rates. For example, while credit hasn't had major problems yet, institutions are already acting like startled birds.
Thursday morning will be the Fed's interest rate decision meeting. This meeting should not see any changes. Journalists will likely mainly ask about the war's impact on inflation. However, given the tariff changes, I think Powell may lean slightly dovish this time.
Looking at BTC data, today's turnover rate has started to decrease. While the price has risen slightly, trading volume hasn't expanded, indicating that investors' desire to sell is not very strong. The turnover on Monday was already quite sufficient, and the chip structure shows no difference from before. All data are very healthy.#BTC
Recently, over the past month, the Nasdaq has been oscillating between 24,000 and 25,000 points without experiencing significant fluctuations, indicating that the market, while acknowledging war developments, has not yet reached a panic stage. After all, everyone knows that while the war has driven up oil prices last week, which in turn has caused repeated inflation, the war is unlikely to last too long. Moreover, investors currently do not expect the Fed to cut rates before Powell steps down.
So although the market seems quite active, the bigger risks are not currently from the war itself. Of course, if the war escalates, risks will also escalate. A nuclear war would be the top-tier risk. Currently, the greatest risk may still lie in the pessimistic expectations caused by high interest rates. For example, while credit hasn't had major problems yet, institutions are already acting like startled birds.
Thursday morning will be the Fed's interest rate decision meeting. This meeting should not see any changes. Journalists will likely mainly ask about the war's impact on inflation. However, given the tariff changes, I think Powell may lean slightly dovish this time.
Looking at BTC data, today's turnover rate has started to decrease. While the price has risen slightly, trading volume hasn't expanded, indicating that investors' desire to sell is not very strong. The turnover on Monday was already quite sufficient, and the chip structure shows no difference from before. All data are very healthy.#BTC