Gate Research: Short-Term Bitcoin Holders Remain Underwater Since November | Aether Acquires Crypto Communications and Media Platform Coinstack

Crypto Market Overview

• BTC (-0.15% | Price: 92,511 USDT): Bitcoin previously faced strong resistance around USD 97,500, which weakened its early-2026 rebound momentum. The latest pullback may have been triggered by negotiations over new tariffs as well as structural risks related to StarkNet derivatives exchanges. Currently, BTC is trading in the USD 92,900–93,000 range. The upside remains clearly defined: USD 84,000 serves as a key support level, and Bitcoin’s primary objective is to decisively reclaim the USD 93,000–94,000 zone and establish it as new support. Repeated failures to hold this area would suggest that the recent strength is more likely a short-lived rebound rather than a sustained move.
• ETH (-0.58% | Price: 3,189 USDT): Since the December sell-off, Ethereum has formed a series of higher lows, developing a rounded accumulation pattern. The most recent low is near USD 3,000, with price fluctuating between this support and the USD 3,300–3,400 resistance zone. Meanwhile, network activity is picking up: total on-chain transactions and their 30-day EMA are both trending higher and currently exceed 2 million. However, this on-chain strength alone is not yet sufficient to confirm a bullish trend. If ETH can hold the USD 3,000 area, short-term price action remains favorable for another test of the USD 3,300 supply zone; failure to do so could reopen a move toward the key support region around USD 2,800.
• Altcoins: Over the past 24 hours, altcoins showed mixed performance, with XRP edging up 0.25% while SOL slipped 0.24%. The Altcoin Season Index stands at 26, unchanged from the previous session, indicating that overall market risk appetite remains subdued.
• Macro: On January 16, the S&P 500 fell 0.06% to 6,940.01, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.17% to 49,359.33, and the Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.06% to 23,515.39. As of 02:00 AM (UTC) on January 20, spot gold was priced at USD 4,666 per ounce, down 0.23% over the past 24 hours.

Trending Tokens

ROSE – Oasis Network (+34.35%, Circulating Market Cap: USD 145M)

According to Gate market data, ROSE is currently trading at USD 0.01932, up 34.35% over the past 24 hours. Oasis Network is a decentralized blockchain network built by Oasis Labs, aiming to create a blockchain-based “cloud computing platform” that balances privacy, security, and performance. Through its integrated hardware–software architecture, Oasis enables the deployment of compute-intensive applications such as artificial intelligence on-chain for the first time. The surge in ROSE is driven by accelerated capital inflows into the high-beta “Privacy + AI” narrative. Unlike early anonymity-focused coins, the current privacy sector emphasizes compliant infrastructure, attracting growing institutional attention. With its Sapphire confidential EVM and ROFL AI compute framework, Oasis sits at the intersection of two major narratives, making it a key beneficiary of capital rotation as market sentiment shifts from a “Bitcoin-led” phase toward higher-risk altcoin plays.

ARPA – ARPA Network (+51.80%, Circulating Market Cap: USD 18.57M)

Based on Gate market data, ARPA is currently priced at USD 0.00631, posting a 51.80% gain over the past 24 hours. ARPA Network is a flexible, user-friendly, and highly compatible computation network that provides a privacy-preserving computation protocol layer for all major public blockchains. Its high-performance privacy computing infrastructure enables enterprises to integrate data, share information, and perform collaborative computations with customizable functions and logic, applicable across finance, credit scoring, marketing, and healthcare. ARPA’s rally this round largely reflects shifts in market sentiment, with 24-hour trading volume surging to USD 320M, signaling increased participation. Price rebounded from a low of USD 0.01 to a high of USD 0.02, a gain of 50.75%, while market capitalization increased by USD 9.46M, indicating that fresh capital inflows are driving the upside.

BXN – BlackFort (+25.41%, Circulating Market Cap: USD 20.26M)

According to Gate market data, BXN is currently trading at USD 0.0012869, up 25.41% in the past 24 hours. BlackFort is a Layer-1, EVM-compatible core blockchain focused on scalable smart contracts, decentralized finance, and real-world asset (RWA) tokenization. The network has implemented its proprietary POSA (Proof of Stake Authority) consensus algorithm, with a strategic emphasis on developing and delivering innovative products and services for its community. The recent rise in BXN is mainly attributed to community partnerships and brand promotion. Between December 2025 and January 2026, a centralized exchange collaborated with BlackFort on a “Christmas Calendar” campaign, expanding BXN’s visibility within the trading community through Twitter Spaces interviews, community engagement, and giveaway events.

Alpha Insights

Public Company Aether Acquires Crypto Communications and Media Platform Coinstack

On January 19, Alpha Edge Media, a subsidiary of Nasdaq-listed fintech group Aether Holdings, announced the acquisition of Coinstack, an institutional-grade cryptocurrency communications and media platform. The acquisition aims to expand Aether’s financial content and data business. Coinstack currently has more than 340,000 subscribers. According to the company, Coinstack will continue to operate independently under its existing brand while gaining access to Aether’s technology stack, analytics infrastructure, and distribution channels.

Founded in December 2020, Coinstack serves a global base of professional investors, including hedge funds, venture capital firms, family offices, and digital asset market participants. It primarily provides curated insights on Bitcoin, Ethereum, decentralized finance, and broader blockchain market trends.

Aether stated that the acquisition strengthens its expanding media and data ecosystem by adding a highly engaged, institution-focused distribution channel that complements its existing analytics, research, and content offerings. Aether CEO Nicolas Lin noted that “Coinstack is a highly strategic addition to Alpha Edge Media,” emphasizing the platform’s subscriber base, engagement metrics, and established brand value. He added that the acquisition will help broaden audience reach, deepen content services, and support future data-driven initiatives across digital assets and broader financial markets. Following the deal, Coinstack will benefit from Aether’s technology and analytical capabilities, while Alpha Edge Media plans to gradually integrate Coinstack’s content and audience insights into its wider platform ecosystem. As a wholly owned subsidiary of Aether Holdings, Alpha Edge Media operates an expert-led network of financial newsletters and investor resources spanning public markets, digital assets, and alternative investments.

Crypto Markets Need Broader ETF Mandates to Break Out, with Leading Assets Driving Retail Attention

On January 19, Wintermute published a new article stating that 2025 did not deliver the market rally many had expected, but it may ultimately be seen as the beginning of crypto’s transition from a speculative asset class to a more mature one. The traditional four-year cycle narrative is losing relevance, as market performance is no longer driven by self-fulfilling timing expectations, but instead by where liquidity flows and where investor attention concentrates.

In 2025, capital did not rotate from Bitcoin to Ethereum and then into altcoins as in past cycles. As retail interest shifted toward equities, the crypto market became highly concentrated. The average altcoin rebound cycle shortened to around 20 days (down from 60 days in 2024). A small number of leading assets absorbed the majority of new capital, while the broader market struggled.

To break beyond this concentration around top assets, at least one of the following needs to occur: (1) ETFs and digital asset trusts expand their investment mandates; (2) major assets such as BTC and ETH lead with strong, sustained rallies; or (3) retail attention returns from equities and other markets. Ultimately, the outcome will depend on whether these catalysts can truly expand liquidity beyond a handful of large-cap assets, or whether market concentration continues to intensify. Understanding where capital may flow—and what structural changes are required—will be critical to shaping the market dynamics of 2026.

Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Have Remained Underwater Since November 2025

On January 19, Glassnode shared data on social media showing that the STH-NUPL indicator (Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, which measures unrealized gains or losses of new investors relative to the short-term holder market cap) indicates that new investors have remained in net unrealized losses since November 2025. For this group to return to net profitability, Bitcoin prices would likely need to recover to at least around USD 98,000.

Historically, during bear markets and deep corrections, prolonged declines tend to force short-term holders to capitulate, realizing losses and exiting positions. During the 2018 bear market, STH-NUPL fell to around -0.6, as short-term participants sold at significant losses, flushing out speculative excess and paving the way for a market bottom and a new bull cycle. In the 2022 bear market, realized losses among short-term holders reached record levels, with prices bottoming near USD 16,000 before entering a new uptrend.

Taken together, current on-chain data suggests the market may be at a critical transition point from a corrective phase toward a new upward cycle. The loss pressure and selling behavior of short-term holders represent a process of market self-cleansing, removing weak hands and speculative positions and laying the groundwork for a more sustainable advance. Historical patterns indicate that such reset phases often create the conditions for the start of a new cycle.


References

• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/BTC_USDT
• Farside Investors, https://farside.co.uk/btc/
• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/ETH_USDT
• Crowfundinsider, https://www.crowdfundinsider.com/2026/01/257487-aethers-alpha-edge-media-acquires-institutional-crypto-newsletter-coinstack/
• X, https://x.com/wintermute_t/status/2013256786359484474
• X, https://x.com/glassnode/status/2013259379340890573

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Disclaimer
Investing in cryptocurrency markets involves high risk. Users are advised to conduct their own research and fully understand the nature of the assets and products before making any investment decisions. Gate is not responsible for any losses or damages arising from such decisions.