Why LINK’s Full Retrace Is a Setup, Not a Surrender
- _LINK’s full retracement of its 2023–2025 rally places it back inside a demand zone that has held multiple times before.
_ - _RSI near historical lows and stabilizing price structure suggest sellers are losing momentum at current support levels.
_ - Santiment’s MVRV data shows LINK at -5.1%, confirming slightly undervalued conditions that historically favor strategic buyers.
Analysts and traders have been keeping their eyes on Chainlink’s complete retracement of its gains from 2023 to 2025.
The majority of these observers, though not the majority, will view it as a breakdown as opposed to a reset. On-chain metrics, technical price action, and price action in proximity to $8.72 are all being used to make the case for accumulating rather than panicking.
A Full Retrace Does Not Always Mean a Failed Trend
Chainlink returning to its pre-rally levels is not automatically a bearish development. In many market cycles, full retracements bring price back into zones where institutional and retail buyers previously accumulated. That is exactly where LINK sits right now.
Analyst Cryptorphic pointed this out directly, noting that $8.72 places the token inside a long-term demand zone that has already held multiple times.
The 2023–2025 run being fully retraced puts LINK back into accumulation territory, not breakdown territory. That distinction matters when reading price action correctly.
$LINK looks washed out, and that’s usually where trends quietly reset.
Price is sitting inside a long-term demand zone that has already held multiple times. The whole 2023–2025 run has been fully retraced, putting LINK back into accumulation territory instead of breakdown… pic.twitter.com/5TURXj4g3T
— Cryptorphic (@Cryptorphic1) February 21, 2026
A full retrace removes excess speculation built up during the prior rally. It shakes out weak hands and resets sentiment to a more neutral baseline. From that foundation, a healthier and more sustained trend rebuild becomes possible.
Technical Structure Is Stabilizing, Not Deteriorating
The RSI for LINK is sitting near historical lows, a condition that has preceded recoveries in past cycles. Price structure above support is also holding, which suggests that sellers are losing control of the move lower. These are early signals of trend exhaustion on the downside.
Cryptorphic outlined the likely sequence ahead: slow base formation, higher lows, trend rebuild, then momentum. This is not a prediction of an instant parabolic move.
Rather, it reflects how major recovery phases typically develop after prolonged corrections.
The fact that LINK is stabilizing rather than accelerating lower carries weight. Each day that price holds above demand strengthens the base being formed. Over time, that base becomes the foundation for the next directional move higher.
Short-Term Resistance Levels Confirm Where Momentum Can Return
Trader Nehal identified $9 as the first key level LINK needs to reclaim. A clean break above that price would shift short-term sentiment and likely bring momentum buyers into the trade. From there, $9.56 sits at the top of the current defined channel as the next logical target.
A clean break above $9 could send $LINK toward the top of its range near $9.56.$LINK has been stuck in a defined channel, so reclaiming $9 would signal bullish strength and likely attract short-term momentum buyers.
If price holds above $9, $9.56 becomes the next key target. pic.twitter.com/usUqkjByIs
— Nehal (@nehalzzzz1) February 21, 2026
Holding above $9 is the first confirmation that the base is transitioning into a recovery. Momentum traders typically wait for that kind of structural signal before committing capital. A sustained move above $9 changes the conversation from defense to offense.
Until that break happens, LINK remains in a consolidation phase. That is not a negative condition. Consolidation after a full retrace is where the next setup quietly forms.
On-Chain Data Supports the Case for Buying Into Weakness
Santiment’s February 21 MVRV analysis placed LINK at -5.1% on a 30-day basis. That reading puts the token in slightly undervalued territory, meaning average holders are currently sitting at a loss. Historically, this is the zone where strategic buyers build positions.
📊 According to the 30-day MVRV’s of crypto’s large caps, which identifies overvalued and undervalued assets based on average trader returns, here are where things stand:
Undervalued:
📌 Ethereum $ETH: -14.3%Slightly Undervalued:
📌 Bitcoin $BTC: -6.9%
📌 Chainlink $LINK:… pic.twitter.com/Qu08RBaw1S— Santiment (@santimentfeed) February 20, 2026
MVRV compares market value to realized value to identify when assets are mispriced. When average returns fall this far below zero, it signals that the market has already priced in the pain. Santiment described dollar-cost averaging during such periods as a historically sound strategy.
The broader MVRV data also showed Ethereum at -14.3% and Bitcoin at -6.9%, placing the current environment in a wider period of undervaluation.
LINK sitting within that group adds weight to the setup case. Price refusing to go lower, while on-chain data flashes undervalued readings, is rarely a coincidence.