Control of Bitcoin Supply Shifts as New Wave of Whales Takes Over - Crypto Economy

TL;DR

• Control of the Bitcoin market has shifted to new whales, who hold the marginal supply after buying near the $120,000 highs.
• Large holders aged 6–12 months represent 17% of the marginal supply, show a willingness to take losses, and currently hold $6 billion in unrealized losses.
• The activity of these wallets determines BTC’s direction, sales during price drops, and overall market dynamics, while older holders exert minimal influence.

Control of the Bitcoin (BTC) market shifted to new whales during the last months of 2025. The share of BTC in the hands of these new holders surpassed that of long-term investors, according to the Realized Cap metric. This new cohort acquired BTC near all-time highs, around $120,000, and currently holds the marginal supply that influences BTC’s price direction.

Experienced holders and long-term whales sold part of their positions in 2025, possibly to take profits. Their average realized price is around $40,000 per Bitcoin. Their activity is sporadic and of lower impact, generating no significant pressure on recent market movements.


New Whales and New Market Dynamics

The new whales include wallets aged 6–12 months, representing approximately 17% of the marginal supply. This group shows a willingness to take losses and sell during price declines. The average acquisition price of these new holders is $98,000, leaving them near break-even against the current spot price. They currently hold around $6 billion in unrealized losses.

During the latest Bitcoin downturn, new whales sold part of their holdings. The activity of this cohort showed short-term risk mitigation trades, with no evidence of long-term conviction. BTC distribution now concentrates in these wallets, which have become the main source of selling pressure over the past months.

BTC prices fell to as low as $87,000 during the latest session, while the volume and selling pressure from new holders pushed the Crypto Fear & Greed Index down to 32, returning to fear territory. The index had briefly recovered to neutral levels before this new decline.


Long-Term Holders Relegated

The behavior of these whales currently defines market dynamics. Their share of the marginal supply sets BTC’s direction, the timing of profit-taking, and sales strategies during price fluctuations. Older holders maintain a limited presence in recent market moves.

The coming months will show how new whales manage their positions while absorbing losses or executing additional sales. The market composition reflects that control is now in new hands, whose movements and decisions define Bitcoin’s trajectory in this cycle