Positioning and Premium Pricing

First, let’s discuss the results of my research: During the same time period, stocks with similar fund nature and fund intent form a positioning relationship.
① Note: Common fund natures include state-backed funds, long-term institutional investors, short-term traders, and market forces. In the research results, fund natures are divided into market forces and non-market forces.
② Note: The fund nature in the research results refers to the initial fund nature at the start of the positioning, as the nature can change over time.

Battle for Shandong Mining Machinery between Tail and Rishang:
Shandong Mining Machinery was the highest benchmark at the time, with uniqueness, naturally attracting attention from ultra-short-term market players. However, its behavior of increasing in price while shrinking in volume did not align with its top-tier status, leading the market to gradually doubt its legitimacy.

Sharp large funds sensed the trend and decisively pulled up Tail Shares from the floor. The special movement of a limit-down or limit-up pattern can attract market attention; otherwise, why would a stock with no recognition or status suddenly move strongly? It’s because its fund nature and fund intent have changed.

Similarly, Tail Shares had no news triggers, no sector reinforcement, and no recognition to catch retail investors’ eyes. Therefore, it can be judged that its movement was artificially driven beyond expectations, with the intent to seize Shandong Mining Machinery’s position.

After Tail Shares achieved its fund intent, to avoid the realization of gains from unexpected movements, large funds supported Rishang Group to inter-position (not necessarily making Tail’s movement insignificant, but focusing on fund intent). (It’s not about Tail hitting full death as expected; winning or losing doesn’t matter.) Those who understand that Tail is being guided into a sky movement and Rishang’s positioning intent will likely hold both.

First, Kai Shares and Tongrun Equipment’s inter-position crossing battle:
In August, after the cycle of Huasheng Tiancheng and China Electric Xinlong ended, the market searched for new hype, with Qingshan Paper as an example. Unfortunately, after a few days of operation, the market moved on.
In early September, the low-priced stock sector was activated, and First Kai Shares, with an early advantage, naturally became the sector’s star. There was also Sanwei Communication, which had a market-force fund nature, inconsistent with First Kai Shares’ fund nature, so it was excluded. The stock with the same position and fund nature as First Kai Shares was Tongrun Equipment, both aiming to cross into a new cycle to become leaders. (In other words, both are positioning at good nodes to launch and sell, not crossing.)

Ultimately, First Kai Shares won the positioning battle. It was expected to accelerate for a day, and after locking Tongrun in place, there was little expectation left. However, internal profit-taking did not lead to a sell-off, and the next day, it successfully crossed, forming a market force with external funds, which ultimately drove the low-priced stocks and robotics to ferment, making it the September leader.

From these two examples, it’s clear that the essence of positioning is that stocks with the same fund intent attract limited funds to join through positioning—one side wins, the other loses. When external funds are sufficient, they can also position, and eventually, both sides form a symbiotic relationship (like Hefei China and Pingtan Development). The time period is fundamental (the competition ends before you participate?), and fund nature is auxiliary (since fund nature can change, knowing the initial fund nature is enough).
Fund intent is the most important.

Funds with some strategic thinking will tell me the same: although they inter-position, they will hold positions.

Let’s make an analogy—just a hypothetical scenario. If on December 12th, the market doesn’t meet expectations, will Tail compete for bidding? This inter-position process can cause emotional premium, which is the source of profit for guiding funds.

Hypothesis: On December 10th, Tail nearly hits the one-word limit, Rishang rebounds at the end of the day, and on December 11th, Rishang pre-positions Tail as expected.
On December 11th, bidding and opening meet expectations, but ultimately Tail is pushed to the limit-down, trying to reverse the position, but fails and gets stuck. Tail’s limit-down is expected, while Rishang accelerates or realizes expectations.
On December 12th, Tail hits the limit-down as expected, and Rishang also meets expectations. The bidding ends with a rush (no expectation difference, so it’s realized today; if it opens with a one-word limit or a gap-up, or strong support after opening, it’s beyond expectations, turning the fund intent into crossing First Kai or Zhongtong funds).
However, after a quick buyback and sharp sell-off, the rapid rise indicates exhausted sell orders, followed by support at the moving average and then igniting higher.
But at 10:03, shortly after Rishang’s limit-up, Tail opens again (wasn’t it stuck? What’s going on???).

1. Initially, I thought it would become a symbiosis like Pingtan and Hefei, but no, the fund intents are different.
2. Then I wondered if the large volume was guiding self-rescue? Who would save something stuck without status?
3. Continuing to think, both got stuck, Rishang’s expected limit-up was filled, everyone only knew Rishang was done, so expectations should have ended. But Tail rebounded from the limit-down with a reverse expectation? After establishing the reverse expectation, the market could continue to dance for days. Maybe that’s the answer—just looking back, it failed, but perhaps Tail’s revival from the floor and then trapping Rishang again is possible. The importance of contingency plans.

If on December 12th, expectations are not met and it hits the limit-down again, several possibilities exist:

1. Both die together, market retreats (normal expectation).
2. Rishang dies, Tail cancels orders to compete and revive, reversing the position (expectation gap). After reversing, Tail can survive another day, reviving on the realization day, cycling back and forth—no expectation gap, just revival for a day.
3. Rishang dies, Tail cancels orders to compete, but is crushed by selling pressure—very unlikely, as there’s no dense profit zone or trapped positions, so little selling pressure.