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Bitcoin price holds steady at 75,000 - Strategy holdings of 815,000 coins plus ETF inflows, will geopolitical black swans cause a dip?

On April 21, Bitcoin's price held firm at the $75,000 mark, supported by two institutional forces: Strategy holding 815,000 BTC with an average cost of about $75,527; Bitcoin ETFs have seen three consecutive weeks of net inflows, with nearly $1 billion in weekly inflows. Meanwhile, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have escalated again, with US-Iran ceasefire expiring on April 22, and geopolitical black swans descending. $75,000 is both the cost line for bulls and the target for bears. Will this collision of institutional chains and geopolitical shocks create a golden pit or break through the last line of defense?

Bitcoin has been oscillating around the $75,000 to $76,000 range, with the latest quote at $75,547. This price is not only a psychological technical barrier but also a cost line made of real gold and silver, representing the position average of Strategy, the world's largest corporate holder.

Behind this defense line stands a group of unyielding institutional forces. But just as the bulls gather, alarms ring again over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran claims the US has violated the ceasefire agreement and announces "blockade of the Strait of Hormuz from this evening," prompting the US military to attack an Iranian container ship in the Gulf of Oman. The situation overnight shifted from negotiations to the brink of conflict.

Market panic then spreads: on April 20, Bitcoin rapidly dropped from $78,000, with over 200,000 traders liquidated, totaling about $317 million.

$75,000 is not just a number; it is a position.

Strategy invests $2.54 billion in a single week to add to holdings against the trend

From April 13 to 19, Strategy invested approximately $2.54 billion, buying 34,164 BTC at an average price of about $74,395, ranking third in the company's history for weekly increase. By this point, it held a total of 815,061 BTC, accounting for over 3.8% of the total Bitcoin supply, with an average cost of about $75,527.

Strong capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs

Currently, Bitcoin ETF inflows this year have exceeded $1 billion, successfully reversing previous net outflows and achieving positive growth. Last week, the overall net inflow into crypto ETPs was $1.4 billion, with Bitcoin spot ETFs contributing about $1 billion, marking the third consecutive week of net inflows.

From April 13 to 17, US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $996 million, reaching the highest level since mid-January 2026.

On April 20, BlackRock's IBIT saw a single-day net inflow of $256 million, with total net inflows reaching $64.63 billion.

Geopolitical black swan shocks: will it create a golden pit or an endless abyss?

Bitcoin oscillates around $75,000, with Strategy holding 815,000 coins plus ETF inflows, and geopolitical black swans impacting: will it create a golden pit or an endless abyss? We believe it can be viewed in two parts.

Conflict in the Strait of Hormuz sparks safe-haven sell-offs

On April 19, Bitcoin briefly fell below $74,950, triggering liquidations of over 200,000 traders. This "rise first, then fall, rapid reversal" pattern in the crypto market is usually driven by one thing—main players shaking the market with news.

The most uncertain factor now is the timing window of the US-Iran ceasefire. The two-week temporary ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran will expire on the morning of April 22 Beijing time, with Trump publicly warning that if no agreement is reached, tensions could escalate. This means that from the close on April 21 to the Asian trading hours on April 22, the market may face a prolonged information vacuum, which is precisely the most vulnerable period for flash crashes.

Bitcoin price under pressure but logic remains unchanged

Despite the tense Middle East situation, institutional logic remains firm. BlackRock's IBIT recorded a net inflow of $284 million on April 17, a clear sign of "greed amid panic." Strategy treats each black swan shock as a signal to add positions; in front of it, there are no pits, only buying opportunities.

Four keywords for the decisive moment

Faced with Bitcoin oscillating around $75,000 and Strategy holding 815,000 coins plus ETF inflows, we believe the future price trend of Bitcoin will be determined by four factors:

Ceasefire outcome—whether the US and Iran extend the ceasefire after April 22 will directly affect whether panic selling can be alleviated;

The gains and losses of $75,000—if Bitcoin falls below and closes under $74,500, it may test the $73,000 zone; if it can stabilize and break through $76,000 with volume, bulls will regain control;

ETF sustainability—whether the three-week net inflow can continue is a key indicator of institutional support strength;

Retail investor sentiment—over 200,000 traders liquidated, panic index at extremely low levels, signals of contrarian positioning are already emerging.