Vendedor retoma o mercado de derivativos! Falta de demanda à vista de Bitcoin, a recuperação pode continuar?

Question

【比推】Recent on-chain data has shown some interesting changes. Weeks ago, buyers still held the upper hand; now sellers have regained control of the derivatives market. Even more concerning is that the US spot market is not providing any hedging demand support—these two signals together point to the market entering a risk-avoidance mode.

Looking at the active buy and sell orders makes it clear. The flow of active trading is rapidly shifting towards the sell side, with the imbalance index dropping to -0.0917, and the Z-score (90 days) reaching -1.81. The market is already in a typical sustained sell-dominant pattern. Compared to a few days ago, when signals were closer to neutral, this deterioration is quite evident. Accompanying this, the short ratio has risen to 0.546, while the long ratio has fallen to 0.454, making the long-short force balance very skewed.

What does this structure mean? It indicates that sellers are not just holding positions but actively dumping. As long as the Z-score remains in the negative zone, any rebound will lack strength—basically just a brief breather, not a trend reversal. The first real sign of improvement is the Z-score returning to the neutral zone, along with the imbalance index gradually narrowing.

Another detail worth noting is that the Bitcoin Coinbase premium index is now negative, around -0.077. In plain terms, market participants in the US are not keen on buying above the global market price. In this scenario, pulse waves in derivatives may cause intense volatility and short-term rebounds, but without spot market follow-through, these waves are unlikely to translate into a genuine recovery.

It’s important to emphasize that this is not a panic sell-off scenario. The real issue is that buying pressure has disappeared—and this demand usually confirms market quality. Only when the premium index reverses from negative and US spot demand truly returns will the market show genuine signs of improvement.

Ser_APY_2000 · Accepted Answer

Este movimento do vendedor é realmente agressivo, se não houver compradores à vista, a recuperação será vazia, não serve para nada

SatoshiSherpa · Answer

O vendedor voltou a fazer vendas agressivas, desta vez parece mesmo sério... Valor Z -1.81, para ser honesto, estou um pouco desconfortável

ShibaSunglasses · Answer

O vendedor voltou a ficar louco, este valor Z de -1.81 realmente é um pouco forte, a recuperação deve ser mais uma vez empurrada para baixo.

Vendo o mercado à vista tão frio, os investidores de varejo já devem ter fugido assustados, né?

Os curtos representam 0.546 mais do que os longos, nesta situação... até quando será que podemos virar o jogo?

Vender ativamente de forma tão absurda, será que o mercado de contratos quer assustar todo mundo?

Se o intervalo de valores negativos do Z não for rompido, acho que essa recuperação não tem muita chance.

Este ritmo... está começando a parecer um mercado de baixa, a dureza realmente machuca.

DeFiGrayling · Answer

O vendedor voltou a fazer vendas agressivas, desta vez foi realmente bastante duro, o valor de Z chegou a -1.81, a resistência realmente não é suficiente.

Vendedor retoma o mercado de derivativos! Falta de demanda à vista de Bitcoin, a recuperação pode continuar?

Tópicos em destaque

JoinGateTradFitoWinGoldPack

TariffTensionsHitCryptoMarket

GateLaunchpadIMU

GoldandSilverHitNewHighs

WarshLeadsFedChairRace

Gate Fun tendência

Siuuuu

cristianoronaldo

cristianoron

Siuuu

GCOIN

Gate Coin

BLP

BlancoPuff

马匹社群

马匹社群

Fixar