#深度创作营

Recent macroeconomic impacts: when Israel and Iran went to war, Bitcoin experienced a massive sell-off, with several exchanges dumping nearly 3.5 billion dollars worth of coins. However, overnight, this drop was not only filled but, after the monthly close in the early morning, Bitcoin briefly broke through the 68,000 level. If the war continues to escalate chaos, crude oil is likely to rise significantly, which will have a substantial impact on US inflation, leading the Federal Reserve's monetary policy to tighten. At that point, the market may reprice itself. In the short term, on an hourly basis, the price is again showing a peak and correction trend, with bullish volume gradually decreasing. This indicates that the 68,000 resistance remains relatively strong. Looking at the four-hour bullish volume fluctuation curve, bullish volume is gradually diminishing. Considering the recent four-month and weekly net outflows of funds from spot ETF institutions, as well as the near-zero probability of a Fed rate cut in March, I cannot see what would drive BTC to break upwards and rebound.
btc: 66900-67400 short, target 64900.