tonight's non-farm payrolls' true "decisive factor": not the monthly data, but the annual benchmark revision market consensus has shifted from "will there be a rate cut" to whether employment data has been systematically overstated in the long term — this is the real deep water bomb tonight.

Key data expectations (must see)
• New jobs: market consensus +70,000 (Goldman Sachs extreme view +45,000)
• Unemployment rate: 4.4% expected
• Annual benchmark revision: possibly downward by 911,000 (record)

Gold: follow the "rate cut expectations"
✅ In line with expectations (+65,000 to +75,000)
Rise sharply then fall back or directly fluctuate. The shoe dropping makes it hard to trigger a March rate cut; the key is the annual revision — if it is revised downward by more than 700,000, it will reinforce the "already slowing" narrative and pave the way for subsequent gains, but a sharp surge is unlikely tonight.

📉 Below expectations (<+50,000, e.g., Goldman Sachs 45,000)
Likely short-term rally. Rising rate cut expectations → dollar plunges, US bond yields fall → directly reduce gold holding costs. If simultaneously the annual revision is downward by more than 700,000, it confirms a "pseudo-boom," and gold prices may challenge previous highs. A pullback would be a good entry point for bulls.

📈 Exceeding expectations (>+100,000, small probability)
Sharp decline. Defies the "slowing" narrative, the Fed turns hawkish, and liquidity in gold withdraws fastest.

Crypto market: obvious traits of following declines but not rises
✅ In line with expectations
Narrow fluctuations. Bitcoin currently desensitized to "numb" macro data, lacking macro ammunition to break through 73,000.

📉 Below expectations (weaker version of the gold script)
Weak rebound, much smaller than gold. Rate cuts = market money printing, but in this cycle, BTC is more like a "high-beta Nasdaq": poor employment → recession fears rise → institutions' first reaction is to cut positions in high-volatility assets, not immediate safe-haven. Only when rate cuts truly materialize and liquidity overflows will BTC realize the rebound.

💥 The only independent market condition: extremely weak non-farm payrolls trigger a sharp dollar plunge, with BTC temporarily acting as "digital gold" to hedge fiat currency credit.

Most probable outcome forecast (institution consensus)
Data will be below 70,000 but not collapse.
• New jobs: most likely between 45,000 and 60,000 (ADP only 22,000 already warning)
• Unemployment rate: most likely steady at 4.4%, a jump to 4.5% would be more impactful
• Annual revision: at least downward by 700,000, if over 800,000 — the Fed's full-year rate cut expectation will shift from once to twice, which is a medium-term super bullish signal for gold and crypto.

One sentence summary: tonight's most probable scenario is a "paper difference, but actually worse" combination. Gold has upside potential, crypto follows the rise but don’t expect an independent bull market. The real decisive factor is the nearly one million jobs erased.