$BTC Evening Market Outlook

Although Bitcoin broke through the triangle consolidation pattern at the hourly level briefly, it failed to hold above the upper boundary, and a shooting star pattern formed at the high, indicating significant selling pressure above. This rebound touched 71342 and then retreated, returning to run within the triangle, while completing the first retest of the 70408 support level.

If the 70408 support holds effectively, there is still potential for another breakout of the triangle in the subsequent market; to initiate a new round of uptrend, it must first break through the shooting star high of 71342, and then attack the 71565 resistance level. Only after firmly establishing these two key levels can we look towards 72350 and higher levels. Any level that fails to break through will limit upside space.

If the market weakens and falls below the 70408 support, it will explore the 69809 neckline, which is the extreme support for this rebound; once breached, the rebound structure from 69809 to 71342 will be destroyed, and subsequent attention should be paid to 69203 and previous low support. If it continues to break down, 68214 will become the next target level.

This rebound is not without trace. The white box area formed an inverted morning star pattern previously, laying the foundation for the rebound; subsequently, after the price encountered resistance at 70408 and the retest of 69809 confirmed effective support, the 71342 rebound emerged, with clear and traceable logic.

Operating Reference

• Long on volume breakout above 70865 to speculate on the rebound;

• Short on volume break below 70033 without rebound recovery, with strict stop loss protection.

Level Outlook

• Hourly level: Hold above 70865, watch 71565-72350 above, if unable to establish above, upside is invalid;

• 4-hour level: Fall below 69827, watch 68766-68313 below.

On the daily level, Bitcoin formed an isolated high after rushing up and retreated to run within a flag pattern, with the overall market returning to an oscillating pattern. The flag upper boundary is 74606, lower boundary is 66580. Range traders can conduct high-sell low-buy operations around this zone, with timely stop losses upon breakout or breakdown. The consolidation cycle is unknown; the longer the oscillation, the more high-sell low-buy opportunities; currently the daily MACD fast and slow lines have risen above the zero line, with bulls dominating the market. My approach is primarily to do long on pullbacks.