Bitcoin recently rose by about 21%, but technical analysis and on-chain data suggest that this resembles a rebound from the bear market phase of 2022. Analyzing the key resistance levels and trend pattern risks for the future.
Bitcoin Recent Price Review
After the bottom in November 2025, the Bitcoin price experienced a strong rebound, rising from around $80,500 to about $97,900, an increase of approximately 21%. This level of rebound has sparked discussions among investors about the market potentially turning to a Bull Market.
However, from a technical analysis perspective, the price has not yet effectively reclaimed the key long-term moving average, and there are still ambiguous factors in the market.
Bear Market Rebound vs Bull Market Confirmation: What’s the Difference?
“Bear Market Rebound” is a common phenomenon during the bear market phase: after a significant price drop, there is a short-term upward trend, but this rebound is often insufficient to reverse the trend. In contrast, bull market confirmation requires the price to break through and stabilize at key technical levels, such as important long-term moving averages or trend lines.
The obvious characteristic of this Bitcoin pump is that it failed to stand above and maintain the long-term trend line, which is very similar to the rebound in the 2022 Bear Market.
Key technical aspect: 365-day moving average
The 365-day moving average is one of the key technical indicators for measuring long-term trends. If the price remains above this average for a long time, it usually indicates that a bullish trend is established; conversely, it still leans towards a bear market.
Currently, Bitcoin has been struggling to break through this technical level, indicating that the market has not yet completely shaken off the long-term downward pressure.
On-chain data and capital flow analysis
On-chain data shows that since the rebound, the inflow of Bitcoin into exchanges has increased, indicating that some investors may choose to sell their assets at high prices, waiting to lock in profits. Such behavior may bring additional downside risks.
In addition, during the Bear Market phase, market risk appetite is usually low, and investors’ confidence in sustained price rises is not strong, which may also limit the subsequent Rebound strength.
Outlook on Market Risks and Opportunities in 2026
If Bitcoin can effectively break through the long-term resistance level of about $101,000 and maintain above it, it is expected to enter a new pump trend, potentially attracting more funds to re-enter the market.
However, before breaking through this key technical level, the market may still return to or approach recent lows, especially against the backdrop of increased capital inflow into exchanges and rising selling pressure.
* The information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other recommendation of any sort offered or endorsed by Gate.
