Bitcoin Price Prediction: After Dropping Below $120K, Trend Reversal or Healthy Pullback?

Real-time signals: price, volatility, and volume

The latest price is about 116,115 USD, with a daily fluctuation range of 116,115–118,519 USD. After the pullback, volatility has increased but the volume has not significantly expanded, indicating that bears are dominant while bulls maintain passive defense above 115k.

Leading variables: macro / funds / technology

• Macro: Recent inflation data has been relatively strong, leading to a revision down of the market’s pricing on the number of interest rate cuts within the year, putting pressure on risk assets.
• Funds (Flow): After last week’s highs, the deleveraging of futures and perpetual contracts has increased the extent of the pullback; spot buying is supporting around the round numbers, but the momentum is insufficient to break through immediately.
• Technical Analysis (TA): After losing 120k, the short-term trend has turned into a fluctuating bearish trend; if the price returns above MA 20 and the volume increases simultaneously, it would be more prudent to discuss a counterattack.

Key levels and triggering conditions

• Support: 115k (primary), 112k (secondary); if 112k is lost, the probability of a pullback to 108k–110k increases.
• Resistance: 120k (primary), 124k (historical high). Returning to 120k and stabilizing with volume is a necessary condition to retest 124k.
• Event window: Jackson Hole speech and subsequent employment data. If a more dovish tone is released, risk appetite may warm up; otherwise, it will remain weak and volatile.

Trading Paradigm: Batch, Stop Loss, Position Size

• Batch: Focus on the main absorption range of 115k–118k, gradually entering the market in three to four transactions.
• Stop loss: Anchor to structural levels, do not follow emotions; short-term stop loss can be placed below 114.8k.
• Position: Beginners should focus on spot trading or low leverage, with 10-20% of funds per trade; when it rebounds to around 120k, reduce positions on the rise and keep some funds to respond to market changes.
• Time: Reduce positions during times of intense news flow, and add to them once the direction is confirmed.

Risk and Opportunity List (Weeks 1–4)

• Downside risks: Inflation exceeds expectations again, the dollar and US bond yields strengthen, and regulatory uncertainty intensifies.
• Upward momentum: Policy tone shifts to dovish, funds flowing back into spot and ETFs, on-chain activity resurgence drives trading demand.
• Key points of operation: Before the trend is clear, prioritize range trading: buy near 115k, reduce positions near 120k; if it breaks through 120k with strong volume, then follow up, avoiding frequent operations in the middle of the range.