Bitcoin Price Prediction: First Major BTC Treasury Just Sold Big – Is the Bull Market Officially Finished?

Sequans Sells 970 BTC, Halves Debt Load

Bitcoin has experienced a notable correction in recent trading sessions, following a significant strategic move by Sequans Communications S.A. (NYSE: SQNS), one of the pioneering corporate treasuries to adopt BTC as a reserve asset. The France-based IoT semiconductor company sold 970 BTC as part of a comprehensive balance sheet restructuring initiative aimed at reducing its debt burden and strengthening its financial position.

The transaction was executed to redeem 50% of the company's $189 million convertible debt, effectively cutting its outstanding leverage to $94.5 million. This strategic debt reduction brought Sequans' Bitcoin holdings down from 3,234 BTC to 2,264 BTC, representing approximately $240 million in value at the time of the transaction. The move demonstrates how corporate treasuries are actively managing their Bitcoin positions to optimize capital structure and maintain financial flexibility.

As a result of this deleveraging effort, Sequans' debt-to-Net Asset Value (NAV) ratio improved significantly, dropping from 55% to 39%. This substantial reduction provides the company with enhanced financial flexibility and greater capacity to optimize its treasury strategy going forward. The improved balance sheet metrics position Sequans to better weather market volatility while maintaining its long-term Bitcoin exposure.

Despite the substantial sale, CEO Georges Karam emphasized the company's unwavering commitment to Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, characterizing the transaction as "a tactical decision to strengthen financial foundations" rather than a shift away from the digital asset. The company has also announced plans to expand its American Depositary Shares (ADS) buyback program, a move that could potentially enhance its Bitcoin-per-share metrics and deliver additional value to shareholders while maintaining its pro-Bitcoin stance.

BTC Technical Picture: $100K Support in Focus

From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin's recent price action presents a complex picture that warrants careful examination. The digital asset has undergone a sharp correction of approximately 8% from the $111,000 level, forming a descending wedge pattern on the 4-hour chart. This technical formation is particularly noteworthy as descending wedges often serve as bullish reversal patterns, suggesting that the current downtrend may be approaching exhaustion.

The chart structure reveals several important characteristics that technical traders are monitoring closely. Each successive selloff has produced higher lows within the converging trendlines of the wedge pattern, indicating that selling pressure is gradually diminishing. This price action suggests that buyers are becoming increasingly willing to step in at higher price levels, potentially setting the stage for a reversal once the pattern completes.

Momentum indicators are currently displaying mixed signals that reflect the market's indecision. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has declined to 31, approaching oversold territory and suggesting that the asset may be due for a technical bounce. More importantly, a subtle bullish divergence is emerging between price action and the RSI, a technical signal that often precedes trend reversals. This divergence occurs when price makes lower lows while the RSI makes higher lows, indicating that downward momentum is weakening despite continued price declines.

However, the moving average structure presents resistance challenges for any potential recovery. Both the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 200-period EMA are positioned above the current price level, creating overhead resistance that could cap near-term upside attempts. These moving averages often act as dynamic resistance levels that price must overcome to confirm a trend reversal.

Looking at potential price scenarios, if Bitcoin can successfully reclaim the $103,600 level, it would signal the beginning of a short-term rebound that could target $106,300 as the first resistance zone. A sustained move above this level could open the path toward $111,200, aligning with prior resistance zones that marked the recent local high. These levels represent logical profit-taking zones where traders might encounter selling pressure.

Conversely, a failure to maintain support at $100,400 could trigger a deeper correction phase. In such a scenario, Bitcoin might test the $97,600–$95,000 range, which corresponds to price levels established during the September consolidation period. These lower levels would represent a more substantial retracement but could also provide attractive entry points for longer-term investors.

What Comes Next for BTC?

The cryptocurrency market finds itself at a critical juncture, with traders and analysts divided on the implications of Sequans' Bitcoin sale and broader market dynamics. Some market participants interpret the corporate treasury sale as a potential signal of broader institutional caution, suggesting that companies may be reassessing their Bitcoin exposure in light of market conditions. Others view it as a temporary tactical adjustment specific to Sequans' balance sheet optimization needs, rather than a broader trend reversal.

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin's descending wedge formation suggests that the market may be approaching a local bottom, with diminishing selling pressure indicating potential exhaustion of the current downtrend. The pattern's completion typically requires a breakout above the upper trendline, which would need to occur with strong volume to confirm the reversal signal.

A confirmed breakout above the $103,600 resistance level could initiate a recovery path with intermediate targets at $115,000 and potentially extending toward $120,000. However, the sustainability of such a move would depend heavily on trading volume and broader market participation. Strong volume on the breakout would suggest genuine buying interest rather than a temporary short squeeze.

In the near term, market sentiment remains somewhat fragile, reflecting uncertainty about macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and institutional adoption trends. However, the long-term conviction in Bitcoin's role as a reserve asset appears to remain intact among both corporate treasuries and institutional investors. Companies like Sequans continue to view Bitcoin as a strategic holding despite making tactical adjustments to their positions.

The evolving approach of corporate treasuries suggests a maturation of Bitcoin adoption strategies. Rather than maintaining static positions, companies are increasingly treating Bitcoin as a dynamic treasury asset that can be actively managed to support broader corporate objectives. This sophisticated approach to Bitcoin treasury management may actually strengthen the long-term adoption thesis, as it demonstrates that Bitcoin can serve multiple financial functions beyond simple buy-and-hold strategies.

As the market moves through this consolidation phase, participants will be closely monitoring several key factors: institutional buying patterns, regulatory clarity developments, macroeconomic indicators, and technical breakout signals. The convergence of these factors will likely determine whether Bitcoin can resume its upward trajectory or requires additional time for base-building before the next significant move higher.

FAQ

What impact does a major Bitcoin treasury sell-off have on BTC price?

Large-scale treasury sales typically exert downward pressure on BTC price. However, government commitments to hold Bitcoin long-term can boost market confidence and support prices, offsetting immediate selling pressure.

Has the 2024 Bitcoin bull market officially ended?

Yes, the 2024 Bitcoin bull market has ended. The market peaked in October 2025 at approximately $126,270, marking the end of this cycle. Following the peak, Bitcoin experienced a sharp correction, declining nearly 30% within six weeks. The market is now in a bear phase characterized by prolonged adjustment rather than rapid collapse, supported by institutional framework but facing macroeconomic headwinds.

What does institutional investor selling of Bitcoin mean?

Institutional Bitcoin selling typically signals reduced confidence, increasing market supply and potentially triggering price declines. Large liquidations can amplify volatility and shift market sentiment bearish, though it may also represent profit-taking rather than abandonment of the asset class.

When Bitcoin price drops, should you buy or sell?

Bitcoin price declines present buying opportunities for long-term investors. Historical data shows significant rallies typically follow bear markets. Consider accumulating during downturns for potential future gains.

What factors affect Bitcoin's long-term price trends?

Bitcoin's long-term price is influenced by supply scarcity, market demand, regulatory policies, macroeconomic conditions, institutional adoption, and market sentiment. These factors collectively drive price discovery and market cycles.

What advantages does Bitcoin have compared to other cryptocurrencies?

Bitcoin is the first and most established cryptocurrency with superior decentralization, market trust, and adoption. It has the largest market capitalization, strongest security through proof-of-work, and greatest liquidity. These factors make Bitcoin the most stable and widely recognized digital asset in the crypto market.