Bull Run Begins: Unpacking the Next Milestone for Bitcoin Amid Multi-Factor Momentum

Price Review and Testing Significance

Since the new bull run started at the end of 2024, Bitcoin has rebounded from a low of $85K, testing the $110K–$125K range multiple times in the first half of this year. In mid-July, it effectively stabilized above $120K for the first time, followed by a pullback for confirmation. This successful test reestablishes the bullish pattern and lays the groundwork for targeting higher objectives.

On-chain data and whale movements

1. Increase in Active Addresses: The average daily active addresses in July exceeded 1.5 million, indicating that retail trading interest remains strong.
2. Large holdings concentrated: On-chain data shows that the number of addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC has increased by 12% since the beginning of the year, indicating significant attention from institutional-level funds.
3. Exchange Outflow: In the past two weeks, the outflow of Bitcoin from exchanges has exceeded 80,000 coins, indicating an increased willingness to lock up funds.

Technical Analysis Explained: Moving Averages, Patterns, and Indicators

• Moving Average System: The 50-week and 100-week moving averages continue to rise and support each other;
• Head and Shoulders Bottom and Breakthrough: At the end of last year, a head and shoulders bottom pattern was formed at $95K, with the neckline corresponding exactly to the $120K range;
• MACD and KD Indicators: Both MACD DIF and DEA are golden cross above the zero line; the KD indicator is oscillating in the 40–60 range with upward potential.

Fundamentals and macro policy driven

• Federal Reserve monetary policy: Several Federal Reserve members hinted at the “possible interest rate cuts,” and the easing cycle will boost the demand for high-risk assets;
• ETF Approval Rhythm: Following the Bitcoin ETF craze, the expectation for Ethereum spot ETFs is approaching realization, which may bring a new wave of capital;
• Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Pilots Worldwide: If the promotion of CBDC accelerates and the public’s acceptance of digital assets increases, it will indirectly benefit Bitcoin.

Capital flows and derivatives market

1. Increasing bullish positions in the options market: The open interest for September expiry call options on CBOE and Deribit platforms has risen by 30%;
2. Perpetual contract funding rate: The positive funding rate status continues, indicating that longs are paying a premium, and the market is leaning towards longs.
3. Stablecoin issuance: The total market capitalization of USDT and USDC has steadily grown, providing ample liquidity to the crypto market.

Beginner Operation Strategies and Mindset Management

• Staggered allocation and stop loss: You can buy in three batches at $118K, $120K, and $122K, with each position not exceeding 30% of the total position;
• Take profit segments: $150K, $180K, $200K, $250K serve as phased targets;
• Psychological Management: The bull run is highly volatile; maintain a strategy of not chasing highs and not panicking. You can reduce market timing risks by using dollar-cost averaging.

Summary and future market focus points

“Bitcoin’s next milestone: Targeting 250K after testing 120K” is based on multiple signal resonance. Next, pay attention to:

1. Trading volume and breakout situation;
2. Federal Reserve meeting minutes and policy statement;
3. ETF and on-chain large fund movements.

As long as key support is maintained and risk management is strictly implemented, beginners can steadily participate in this market trend and embrace the opportunity to reach $250K by the end of the year.