From technical indicators, on-chain data to market structure, a deep analysis of the long-short game of Ethereum (ETH) price approaching $3,500 helps investors accurately grasp the trend and reasonably take profit and stop loss.
During the process of the price continuously retracing to test support, what investors are most concerned about is whether the price of Ethereum (ETH) approaching $3,500 is an opportunity for a rebound or a continuation of the downward trend. The following will break it down one by one.
Current market structure
Since the pullback from the mid-July peak, ETH has been oscillating and building strength within the $3,500- $3,600 range, with bulls and bears repeatedly battling in this area. Currently, a downward continuation right-side structure is forming on the daily chart, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether this support can effectively hold.
Interpretation of Key Technical Indicators
- Moving Average System: The ETH price has fallen below the 20-day moving average, but the MA50 and MA100 are around $3,520 and $3,480 respectively, providing mid-term support. If the price returns above the MA20 (around $3,700), bulls are expected to regain control.
- RSI: The daily RSI is currently around 42, not yet reaching the oversold zone (below 30), indicating that there is still room for downward movement, but continued consolidation may lead to a rebound.
- Trading Volume: Recent trading volume has significantly shrunk, indicating a weakening of bearish momentum. If the price drops to a key support level accompanied by an increase in trading volume, it can be regarded as a signal to go long.
On-chain data perspective
According to on-chain data observations from Glassnode, the number of active addresses and the proportion of large transactions have recently decreased by 8% and 12% respectively, indicating a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. However, pay attention to the accumulation behavior of whale wallets in the $3,500 - $3,600 range, as this may signal positioning by large holders.
Operation strategies and practical suggestions
- Stop loss by segments: If ETH falls below $3,450, it is recommended to stop loss across the board for short positions;
- Incremental Positioning: You can gradually build positions at $3,550, $3,500, and $3,450, and add to your positions after confirming a successful pullback.
- Set target: The initial target is seen as MA20 (around $3,700). If the cycle indicator turns positive, we can further look towards $3,900;
- Combine emotional indicators: Use the Fear and Greed Index to monitor extreme market emotions and avoid chasing highs and selling lows.
By combining the above technologies with multi-dimensional on-chain elements, newcomers can also steadily position themselves, reasonably take profits and set stop losses as the price of Ethereum (ETH) approaches $3,500, grasping the market rhythm.
* The information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other recommendation of any sort offered or endorsed by Gate.
