Ethereum has fallen over 30% from its 2025 peak, with ETF fund outflows and market liquidations amplifying selling pressure. This article analyzes on-chain signals and support zones to reveal potential turning points for investors.
Ethereum has shown relatively weak performance recently, with the price gradually falling from a high of $4,600 to around $3,200, a total decline of over 30%.
This trend reflects a decline in short-term risk appetite in the market, while ETF capital outflows have become an important catalyst.
Ethereum phase pullback: market calm period arrives
From a macroeconomic perspective, the Federal Reserve maintains a high interest rate policy, putting pressure on risk assets. After a significant rise, Ethereum naturally enters a technical correction phase. This round of adjustment is not a crash, but rather a rebalancing phase in the mid-cycle of a bull market.
ETF fund outflow: institutions cool down in the short term
According to the latest data, there has been a continuous net outflow of Ethereum spot ETFs in the past two weeks, totaling over 1 billion USD. Institutional investors have conducted some redemptions after short-term profits, leading to a temporary tightening of liquidity. Nevertheless, long-term funds (such as Grayscale, Fidelity, etc.) still maintain their positions, indicating that the structural bullish outlook has not changed.
Leverage liquidation and liquidity pressure
During the price correction process, a large number of leveraged long positions were passively liquidated due to insufficient margin, further exacerbating the market decline.
According to CoinGlass data, the daily liquidation amount of ETH once exceeded 300 million USD, indicating that the leverage retreat is still ongoing.
Technical support and graphical signal analysis
The key support level for ETH is currently around $3,200. If it can hold this range and return above $3,600, it may confirm a short-term rebound signal. From the chart structure, the RSI indicator has entered the oversold zone, and the MACD has formed a bottom divergence, indicating a weakening of the downward momentum.
Rebound Conditions and Mid-line Layout Suggestions
- ETF net outflows have ended: if the fund flows stabilize, it is one of the signals.
- Increased on-chain activity: an increase in staking volume and a recovery in new wallet growth.
- Technical confirmation signal: Break through 3,600 USD and close firmly.
Overall, the current 30% fall of Ethereum seems more like a phase of reshuffling rather than a trend reversal. For long-term investors, if they can build positions in batches and pay attention to macro signals, they may be able to capture rebound opportunities amidst the volatility.
* The information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other recommendation of any sort offered or endorsed by Gate.
