Is it too late to become a “crypto millionaire” with Bitcoin? | Investment strategies and practical scenarios

What Is an "Okuribito"?

"Okuribito" is a slang term unique to Japan, referring to individuals whose net assets have surpassed 100 million yen through investments or speculation in stocks, FX, or cryptocurrencies. The term became widely recognized during the 2017 crypto bubble. At that time, the rapid surge in Bitcoin and other digital assets enabled many retail investors to build multimillion-yen portfolios from relatively small investments in a short period, propelling "okuribito" into the spotlight.

Since then, as the market has matured, explosive price jumps have become rare, and many investors now wonder if it's "too late to get started." Even so, with the right strategy and a long-term outlook, there is still potential for meaningful wealth creation.

Can Ordinary Investors Still Aim to Become an "Okuribito"?

In summary, "it's not too late." However, buying a small amount of Bitcoin does not automatically make you an "okuribito." The key is a practical investment plan and a long-term perspective.

Even in today’s mature market, Bitcoin retains several growth drivers:

• Continued Entry of Institutional Investors: Major financial institutions and corporations are steadily increasing their Bitcoin holdings
• ETF Market Expansion: The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs has broadened access for a wider range of investors
• Limited Supply: Bitcoin's maximum supply is capped at 21 million BTC, supporting its scarcity value
• Inflation Hedge Demand: As fiat currencies face uncertainty, demand for Bitcoin as "digital gold" continues to rise

Critical questions to consider include:

• How much to invest, over what timeframe, and in what manner
• Potential growth, even for investments limited to hundreds of thousands of yen
• How to manage risk effectively

Understanding these factors and implementing a strategy tailored to your financial situation is fundamental to pursuing the "okuribito" path.

Realistic Scenarios for Becoming an "Okuribito" by Investment Amount

*Assumed price: 1 BTC ≈ ¥14,000,000 (approx. $100,000) for calculation purposes

1. Is It Possible to Become an "Okuribito" with a ¥100,000 Investment?

A ¥100,000 investment buys approximately 0.007 BTC. Even if Bitcoin rises tenfold, your holdings would be worth only about ¥1,000,000—well short of "okuribito" status. Achieving that level would require a hundredfold price increase, which is highly improbable.

However, this amount has another purpose: it serves as a "ticket to participate in the crypto market." Starting with a small investment lets you learn market behavior and gain investing experience. It’s also an effective first step in making decisions about future investments.

Practical goals for this amount:

• Experience market movements and develop investment skills
• Use this as a learning period in preparation for larger investments
• Lower psychological barriers and develop a regular investment habit

2. What Can You Achieve with a ¥1,000,000 Investment?

With ¥1,000,000, you can hold about 0.071 BTC. If Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 per BTC in the future, your holdings would be worth around ¥10,000,000. While this doesn’t make you an "okuribito," multiplying your assets tenfold would be a substantial achievement.

At this level, long-term holding can realistically target returns of several times up to tenfold. Using dollar-cost averaging (DCA) to buy in stages helps mitigate price fluctuation risk.

Strategies for this amount:

• Diversify purchases over multiple transactions instead of buying all at once
• Plan to hold for at least five years
• Don’t react emotionally to short-term price swings; maintain your position
• Reserve funds for potential additional investments

3. Scenario for a ¥10,000,000 Investment

A ¥10,000,000 investment buys about 0.71 BTC. If Bitcoin rises above $700,000, your holdings could reach ¥100,000,000. Some major financial institutions and analysts project prices above $700,000 by 2030, making this the "fastest route" to becoming an "okuribito."

However, ¥10,000,000 is a significant sum for most individuals. Investing at this scale requires careful attention to the following:

Key risk management points:

• Invest only with surplus funds, not your entire savings
• Secure at least six months of living expenses as a safety net
• Limit your investment to an amount you can handle emotionally, even in the event of a sharp decline
• Regularly review and rebalance your portfolio as needed

Potential returns:

• If price doubles: ¥20,000,000
• If price increases fivefold: ¥50,000,000
• If price rises sevenfold or more: "Okuribito" status achieved

At this level, you can directly benefit from market growth, and long-term holding is crucial for success.

4. Continuing a Monthly ¥30,000 DCA Investment for 10 Years

This dollar-cost averaging strategy is highly realistic and minimizes psychological stress. Investing ¥30,000 per month over ten years totals ¥3,600,000.

Simulation:

• Total investment: ¥3,600,000 (¥30,000 × 120 months)
• If Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 per BTC, your holdings could grow to around ¥18,000,000
• Potential for a fivefold return

Main advantages of DCA:

1. Dollar-cost averaging effect: You buy less when prices are high and more when low, reducing your average cost
2. Reduced psychological pressure: Avoids the stress of lump-sum investing; easier to maintain as a habit
3. No need to time the market: You don’t need to worry about "when" to buy
4. Fits comfortably within your income: Doesn’t strain your finances and is sustainable long term

Points to keep in mind:

• Don’t stop investing even if the market drops sharply
• Market declines offer opportunities to buy more BTC at low prices
• Plan for a holding period of at least ten years

Sticking with this approach for ten years or more within your means can make building assets above ¥10,000,000 a realistic goal. Even if you don’t reach "okuribito" status, you can still accumulate enough wealth to change your life.

Major Bitcoin Price Forecasts

Many leading financial institutions and investors have issued bullish forecasts for Bitcoin’s price outlook. These predictions are based on comprehensive analysis of market maturity, institutional participation, and macroeconomic trends.

Price Forecasts from Leading Institutions and Investors

• Standard Chartered Bank: $200,000 (within the next few years)
• Bitwise: $200,000 (mid-term target)
• ARK Invest (Cathie Wood): $710,000 (by 2030)
• Fundstrat: $250,000 (bullish scenario)
• VanEck: $180,000 (conservative bullish case)
• Arthur Hayes (BitMEX Co-founder): $1,000,000 (by 2028)

While there’s a range of forecasts, they all share the expectation that Bitcoin’s price will continue to rise. Even the most conservative projections anticipate a doubling from current levels.

Common Drivers Behind These Forecasts

1. Institutional Investors and ETF Market Growth

The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs has made it easier for large institutions, such as pension funds and insurance companies, to participate. Previously restricted funds now have a pathway into crypto markets. Leading US asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity have already attracted billions of dollars into their ETFs, with momentum expected to continue.

2. Rising Demand for Digital Gold Amid Inflation and Financial Instability

Global inflation concerns are eroding confidence in fiat currencies. Bitcoin is increasingly seen as "digital gold," a hedge against inflation and a store of value. Its fixed supply and resistance to arbitrary increases by central banks enhance its reliability.

3. Tightening Supply and Whale Accumulation

Large investors and corporations are increasing their long-term holdings, reducing the Bitcoin available for trading. As demand rises and supply remains tight, upward price pressure increases. Companies like MicroStrategy continue to accumulate large amounts of Bitcoin, further constraining supply.

4. Effects of the Halving Cycle

Bitcoin undergoes a "halving" roughly every four years, reducing new supply by half. Historically, significant price increases tend to follow halving events. Many analysts expect this cycle to continue, fueling future price growth.

Reliability of Price Forecasts

These forecasts represent expert opinion, not guaranteed outcomes. However, the fact that so many independent institutions and investors are issuing similarly bullish predictions suggests strong positive market sentiment. Always conduct your own research and understand the risks before investing, even when considering expert forecasts.

Long-Term Holding: Historical Returns and Future Potential

What History Tells Us About Returns

Analysis of Bitcoin’s track record shows the clear benefits of long-term holding.

Comparing Bitcoin to Other Assets:

• Bitcoin: Averaged about 155% annual returns over the past five years, far outpacing all major asset classes
• Gold: About 7% annual return over the same period
• S&P 500 (US stocks): About 10–15%
• Bonds: About 3–5%

This dramatic gap underscores Bitcoin’s status as a growth asset class. High returns, however, come with high volatility, so short-term investors may see substantial price drops.

Positive Returns for Four Years or Longer Holding

Looking at Bitcoin’s history reveals a critical fact: "No matter when you bought, holding for four years or longer produced positive returns."

For example, even those who bought at the 2017 bubble peak (~$20,000) and endured a crash saw prices recover to well above their purchase price after four years. This demonstrates the importance of long-term holding.

Why Short-Term Price Swings Shouldn’t Shake You:

• Within the first year, declines of 50% or more are possible
• Over five years or more, most periods yield positive returns
• "Even at the worst timing, holding long enough pays off"—a historical reality

CAGR Trends and Future Outlook

Bitcoin’s annual growth rate (CAGR) is expected to gradually decline as the market matures. This is not a negative development—it signals increasing stability.

Bitcoin’s Historical CAGR:

• Early 2010s: Over 200% annual growth
• Around 2017: Over 100% annually
• 2020 onwards: 30–40%
• Future outlook (15–20 years): Stabilizing around 8% per year

On-chain analyst Willy Woo forecasts that Bitcoin’s CAGR will decline further over 15–20 years, eventually stabilizing around 8%—consistent with long-term returns for gold and equities.

What Lower Growth Rates Mean:

Lower growth may seem less appealing, but it actually marks the transition to a more stable, mature asset class. Even at 8% annual returns, compounding doubles your assets in about ten years and nearly quintuples them in 20 years—solid results for any investor.

Lower volatility also encourages more institutional and conservative investors to participate, increasing market stability overall.

Implications for Future Investment Strategy:

• The days of "getting rich quick" are fading
• But stable, high long-term returns remain achievable
• Larger investments can be made with relatively less risk
• Pension funds and other large capital can participate, improving price stability

High-Risk Shortcuts: Pitfalls of Leverage and Futures Trading

Many retail investors try to rapidly multiply their assets through leverage trading or futures. These may seem like "shortcuts to becoming an okuribito," but in reality, they carry extreme risk—one misstep can wipe out your funds instantly.

How Leverage Trading Works—And Its Risks

Leverage trading lets you trade at multiples of your own capital. For example, with 10x leverage, ¥1,000,000 controls ¥10,000,000 in trades. If prices rise, profits are multiplied tenfold; if prices fall, losses are multiplied tenfold.

Specific Risk:

With 10x leverage, a 10% price drop wipes out your capital (liquidation). Bitcoin can easily move more than 10% in a single day, so the risk of losing your funds instantly is ever-present in leverage trading.

Statistics Reveal a Harsh Reality:

Exchange data shows that about 70–80% of individual investors trading with leverage ultimately lose money, underscoring the difficulty of predicting short-term price movements.

Expert Warnings

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju strongly cautions, "Never use more than 2x leverage." Even as a market expert, he repeatedly emphasizes the risks of high leverage.

Here’s why:

• The Bitcoin market operates 24/7, so sudden volatility is common
• Large investors may intentionally trigger stop-losses ("stop hunts")
• You can be liquidated while asleep or at work
• Emotional decisions can lead to compounding losses

Why Do So Many Try Leverage Trading?

Common psychological drivers include:

• The desire for quick profits
• Overconfidence (“I won’t lose”)
• Success stories are prominent, while failures stay hidden
• The allure of making large trades with small capital

These are all cognitive biases. In reality, even professional traders find it extremely difficult to consistently profit from leverage trading.

Realistic Alternative Strategies

If you want higher returns, consider these safer alternatives:

1. Increase your investment amount: Use surplus funds to invest more, rather than using leverage
2. Increase your monthly contribution: Move from ¥30,000 to ¥50,000 or ¥100,000 per month
3. Extend your holding period: Hold for ten or fifteen years instead of just five
4. Diversify across multiple cryptocurrencies: Invest in promising assets like Ethereum, not just Bitcoin

These strategies may seem slow, but they are far safer and much more likely to generate reliable long-term returns.

Bottom Line: Leverage trading is not a "shortcut to becoming an okuribito"—it’s the fastest way to lose your assets. Disciplined, long-term investing is the surest way to grow your wealth.

Why More Investors Are Holding Bitcoin for the Long Term

The proportion of long-term Bitcoin holders has risen sharply in recent years, reflecting both market maturity and changing investor attitudes.

Institutional Entry and Changing Market Dynamics

Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval

Approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US marked a historic turning point for crypto markets. Pension funds, insurers, and university endowments previously barred by regulations can now invest in Bitcoin through official channels.

ETF-based investing offers several benefits:

• No need to open accounts at crypto exchanges
• No worries about asset custody
• Can invest using existing brokerage accounts
• Regulated trading environment

These advantages have accelerated institutional capital inflows. BlackRock’s ETF, for example, attracted billions of dollars within months, setting a record pace.

The Rise of Bitcoin as Digital Gold

Many institutions now treat Bitcoin as "digital gold," using long-term holding strategies for inflation hedging and diversification. Like gold, Bitcoin stands out for:

• Scarcity: Capped at 21 million BTC
• Durability: Can be preserved indefinitely in digital form
• Divisibility: Can be split to eight decimal places
• Ease of transfer: Instant cross-border payments
• Verifiability: Blockchain enables transparent transaction audits

These qualities are cementing Bitcoin’s status as the "gold of the 21st century"—a long-term store of value.

Legal Reform and a Better Investment Environment in Japan

Japan’s 2017 Payment Services Act amendments officially recognized Bitcoin as a payment method. As a result, crypto exchanges must register with the Financial Services Agency, bolstering investor protection.

Legal reforms have led to:

• Stricter security standards for exchanges
• Mandatory segregation of client assets
• Enhanced monitoring for fraudulent activity
• Clearer tax treatment

These changes have made it safer for individuals to invest in Bitcoin. The rise of exchanges operated by major financial group subsidiaries has further boosted trust.

The Surge in Long-Term Holders (LTH)

On-chain data shows that LTHs (Long Term Holders—those with positions held for six months or longer) now control more than 70% of all circulating Bitcoin.

What this means:

1. Market maturity: More investors focusing on long-term value, not short-term trading
2. Reduced supply: Less Bitcoin available for trading, increasing upward price pressure
3. Lower volatility: Long-term holders rarely sell, stabilizing the market
4. Institutional impact: As more large holders emerge, market quality improves

Why Long-Term Holding Is Increasing

Key psychological factors include:

• Trust in historical data showing "holding for four years or longer always produced positive returns"
• Relief from the stresses of short-term trading
• Adoption of the philosophy that "time is your ally" in investing
• Greater market credibility thanks to institutional involvement
• Expectations for future price increases

This trend is expected to continue, further stabilizing and maturing the market.

A Realistic Path to Becoming an "Okuribito" with Bitcoin

What Price Level Is Required for "Okuribito" Status?

With Bitcoin at 1 BTC ≈ ¥14,000,000, reaching ¥100,000,000 in assets requires a price increase of over sevenfold. That means, if Bitcoin hits 1 BTC ≈ ¥100,000,000 (about $710,000), anyone holding one Bitcoin becomes an "okuribito."

ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood forecasts $700,000 per BTC by 2030, right at this level. If this prediction comes true, all investors holding one or more BTC would achieve "okuribito" status.

Required Investment—Reverse Calculation:

• Holding 1 BTC: About ¥14,000,000 invested; a sevenfold price increase delivers "okuribito"
• Holding 0.5 BTC: About ¥7,000,000 invested; a fourteenfold increase delivers "okuribito"
• Holding 0.1 BTC: About ¥1,400,000 invested; a seventyfold increase delivers "okuribito"

The less you invest, the higher the price appreciation needed. Realistically, a substantial investment is required to aim for "okuribito" status.

Practical Strategies by Investment Size

Investing less than ¥100,000:

This amount is unlikely to lead to "okuribito" status. Still, it has important benefits:

• Learn the basics of crypto investing
• Experience market volatility and gauge your risk tolerance
• Prepare for larger investments in the future
• Start a DCA strategy with this initial amount

Goal: Grow your assets to several hundred thousand yen over a few years and build investment experience

Investing around ¥1,000,000:

This amount offers realistic potential for severalfold to tenfold growth long-term. Even without reaching "okuribito" status, you could achieve life-changing returns.

Recommended strategy:

• Stagger purchases over several months to a year
• Plan to hold for at least five, preferably ten or more years
• Reserve funds for additional investments
• Regularly review your portfolio and buy more as needed

Potential returns:

• Conservative case (3x): ~¥3,000,000
• Moderate case (5x): ~¥5,000,000
• Bullish case (10x): ~¥10,000,000

Investing around ¥10,000,000:

This is where "okuribito" becomes a realistic target. However, it’s a significant sum for most, so careful judgment is essential.

Recommended strategy:

• Invest only with surplus capital (separate emergency reserves)
• Make purchases in stages to lower your average entry price
• Prepare plans for additional investments if prices drop significantly
• Consider taking profits periodically (e.g., sell half if price doubles)
• Plan for tax implications up front

Potential returns:

• Conservative case (2x): ~¥20,000,000
• Moderate case (5x): ~¥50,000,000
• Bullish case (7x+): ¥100,000,000+ ("okuribito" status)

Monthly DCA of ¥30,000 for ten years:

This is the most realistic, least stressful approach, and easiest for most people to maintain.

Specific plan:

• Set automatic purchases on a fixed date each month
• Continue regardless of price swings
• Consider additional investments with bonuses
• Ignore daily price changes; focus on your valuation in ten years

Potential returns:

• Total investment: ¥3,600,000
• Conservative case (3x): ~¥10,800,000
• Moderate case (5x): ~¥18,000,000
• Bullish case (10x): ~¥36,000,000

Even if you don’t reach "okuribito" status, you can still accumulate enough for retirement or a home purchase.

Disciplined Risk Management and Long-Term Holding Are Essential

Regardless of investment size, success depends on "risk management" and "long-term holding."

Basic risk management principles:

1. Invest only with surplus funds: Never touch living expenses or emergency reserves
2. Diversify purchases over time: Don’t invest everything at once
3. Avoid emotional decisions: Don’t panic and sell in a downturn
4. Regularly review your portfolio: Check once or twice a year
5. Plan for profit-taking: Decide up front to sell part of your holdings at target prices

Importance of long-term holding:

Bitcoin’s history shows that holding for four years or longer offers a high likelihood of positive returns. Focusing on the long term and ignoring short-term fluctuations is the fastest path to success.

Psychological preparation:

To succeed as a long-term holder, prepare for:

• Possible 50% price drops
• Enduring periods of unrealized losses
• Ignoring short-term success stories from others
• Sticking to your own investment strategy

With these preparations, your chances of long-term investment success are greatly improved.

Summary

Bitcoin’s price remains near record highs, but aiming for "okuribito" status is still possible. While past explosive growth is less likely now, expert forecasts and growing market maturity suggest there is still ample potential for multiplying your assets severalfold.

Key takeaways:

1. Set realistic goals based on your investment amount: ¥1,000,000 can aim for severalfold growth; ¥10,000,000 puts "okuribito" in sight
2. Long-term holding is crucial: Four years or longer increases your odds of positive returns
3. DCA investing works: ¥30,000 per month for ten years can build assets above ¥10,000,000
4. Leverage trading is risky: Chasing quick riches can lead to total loss
5. Institutional participation: Market maturity and stability are improving
6. Expert bullish forecasts: Many institutions expect further price appreciation

The most important mindset:

Focus not on "how much you can gain," but on "how much you can invest comfortably and consistently." Tailor your strategy to your financial situation, risk tolerance, and life plans.

Don’t rush, avoid greed, and leverage time and diversification. Starting your strategy now is the most realistic way to begin your journey toward becoming an "okuribito."

Final note:

Investing is your personal responsibility. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research and consult professionals as needed before making investment decisions.

With the right knowledge and strategy, Bitcoin investing can deliver substantial long-term growth. We hope this article helps inform your investment decisions.

FAQ

Can I Still Become an "Okuribito" by Starting Bitcoin Investment Now?

Yes. By leveraging Bitcoin’s volatility and investing with a disciplined strategy, becoming an "okuribito" remains achievable. Even starting in 2026, long-term holding and understanding market cycles can open opportunities for significant gains.

How Much Initial Investment Is Needed to Aim for "Okuribito" with Bitcoin?

The required initial investment depends on market conditions, but generally, investing tens of thousands to several hundred thousand yen provides a chance to aim for "okuribito." Larger investments increase the likelihood of reaching your goal sooner.

What Are the Realistic Returns and Expectations for Bitcoin Investment?

Bitcoin offers no native yield; returns depend on price appreciation or risk strategies. Realistically, delta-neutral arbitrage strategies can yield 3–6% annually, but speculative "yield" products carry hidden risks.

What Are Concrete Investment Strategies and Capital Management Methods for Pursuing "Okuribito"?

Begin with a small amount, maintain strict risk management and ongoing market analysis, and gradually increase your capital while refining your investment strategy. Regular profit-taking and loss control are key—focus on long-term growth.

What Risks Come with Bitcoin Investing, and How Can I Prevent Losses?

Major risks include high volatility, fraud, and heavy tax burdens (up to 55%). Countermeasures include understanding the underlying mechanisms, strengthening security, and using tools for profit/loss calculation.

How Does Bitcoin Investment Compare to Other Assets (Stocks, Real Estate, etc.)?

Bitcoin is highly liquid and trades 24/7. Compared to stocks or real estate, price swings are larger, offering potential for rapid gains. However, regulatory conditions are more volatile, so stocks and real estate may offer more stability for long-term investing.

What Is the Future Outlook for the Bitcoin Market and Its Long-Term Growth Potential?

In 2026, Bitcoin’s market outlook is supported by increased liquidity from monetary easing, growing institutional demand, and improved regulatory clarity. The expected price range is $75,000 to $200,000. Integration with AI infrastructure and RWA growth will also be tailwinds, supporting strong medium- to long-term growth.