Market Focus: Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach $250,000 by Year-End

Hayes’s Bitcoin prediction: reaching $250,000 by the end of the year.

BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes has once again made a “heavyweight prediction”: Bitcoin will break through $250,000 by the end of 2025, and Ethereum will also rise to $10,000. He believes we are currently in the early stages of a bull market, and a significant surge may occur in the coming months.

Support Logic: Monetary Easing + Stablecoin Structure

Hayes emphasized two key driving factors:

1. “War Economy” policies promote liquidity release: Trump’s proposed infrastructure spending and loose fiscal policy will exacerbate the deficit, increase the supply of dollars, which is beneficial for Bitcoin to rise as “digital gold.”
2. Stablecoin purchases of US Treasuries form a closed loop: USDT and USDC issuers use reserves to buy US Treasuries, further driving on-chain dollar demand, which is beneficial for Bitcoin valuation.

Ethereum may break through $10,000

Hayes stated that Ethereum, as the “operating system of the Web3 world,” will experience explosive growth for its token ETH due to DApp activity and the successful expansion of L2. Furthermore, if the SEC approves a spot ETH ETF, it will also bring in institutional-level incremental buying.

Derivatives market data confirms optimistic sentiment

Deribit data shows:

• The $140,000 Bitcoin call options expiring in December 2025 have become the main trading variety.
• The OI of ETH call options has also increased significantly, with target prices concentrated in the range of $6,000–$8,000.
• The exchange’s leverage rate is stable, and no significant risk of forced liquidation has been observed.

This indicates that professional traders are positioning themselves in advance for a potential bull market in Q4.

Market Divergence: Some Analysts Remain Bearish

Despite the market’s bullish sentiment, experts like Ruadhan hold a conservative view, believing that:

• ETH faces technical resistance and may fall back to 2,000 dollars in the short term.
• If Bitcoin cannot stabilize above $120,000, it may pull back to the $100,000 region.
• If the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates for a long time, liquidity easing will be delayed.

How should investors respond to bullish and bearish signals?

The suggestion is as follows:

1. Do not blindly chase price increases, but set key prices to enter the market.
2. Hold a cautiously optimistic attitude towards Hayes’ predictions, but do not use it as the sole basis for judgment.
3. Pay attention to the Ethereum upgrade (Pectra) and ETF approval progress.
4. Learn to use tools such as options and limit orders to manage positions and risks.

If you are a beginner, it is recommended to start with small amounts in mainstream assets like BTC and ETH, avoid high-leverage operations, and continuously pay attention to the “latest cryptocurrency news” to maintain information sensitivity.