Unlock Pressure Rises, But SOL Holds Technically: Is $150 the Key Level?

Summary

On May 20, SOL price fell to $169.60, with a market capitalization of $86.66 billion and a 24-hour trading volume of $49.17 billion; during the same period, FTX had the largest unstake volume of 1.4M SOL. However, from a technical perspective, the bullish flag pattern after the breakthrough has not been invalidated, and $150 remains a crucial support level for the bulls. This article will analyze investment key points from the perspectives of unstaking incentives, technical structure, and macro catalysts.

Weekly SOL Market Review

Image:https://www.Gate.com/trade/SOL_USDT

• Price and Order Book: On May 20th, SOL was reported at $169.60, with a market capitalization of $866.6 billion and a 24-hour trading volume of $49.17 billion.
• Short-term fluctuations: Compared to 176.46 US dollars five days ago (May 15), it has dropped by about 3.9%; compared to the high point of 184.05 US dollars two weeks ago, it has fallen by nearly 7.8%.

1.4M SOL unstake truth

On-chain data shows that FTX has unstaked 1.4 million SOL this week, worth approximately 2.36 billion US dollars, in preparation to pay off 5 billion US dollars in debt. This unstaking wave is a major selling pressure source, but does not necessarily mean that all unlocked tokens will be sold immediately.

Technical Chart: Bullish flag pattern still valid

• Flag breakout: On May 8th, SOL broke out upwards from the bullish flag pattern, closing price above the upper band, subsequently reaching a high of $188.69.
• Retracement amplitude: Currently falling to around 168.85, it has not yet broken through the flag bottom support of $150; if this level is held, the flag pattern is still valid with a target price of $212.

Macro catalyst: BTC, ETF, and wallet support

1. Bitcoin trend: BTC has been steadily holding at $100,000 for 7 consecutive days, providing bottom support for the overall market.
2. ETF expectations: The SEC is expected to vote on the Altcoin ETF on June 16, and the market generally expects approval (82% probability), which may trigger a rush of early entries.
3. Wallet native support: MetaMask announced native support for SOL starting in May, which can significantly reduce the user entry threshold or attract a new wave of retail investors and DeFi enthusiasts.

Beginner short-term and medium-to-long-term strategies

• Short-term: Pay attention to whether SOL stabilizes around $150. If it breaks below, consider exiting; if it holds, consider adding to your position on dips with a light allocation.
• Medium to long term: Gradually increase positions when market sentiment turns positive, taking into account the trend of BTC and the progress of ETF approval.
• Risk management: the exit position is set near $150, and the target position can refer to the range of $188-$212.