What’s Causing the 27% Crash Risk in HBAR? The Truth Behind the Stablecoin Collapse

Background Review: HBAR’s Performance This Year

Figure:https://www.gate.com/trade/HBAR_USDT

At the beginning of 2025, HBAR surged to $0.40, but was subsequently affected by an overall pullback in the crypto market and negative industry news, leading to a continued decline in price, with a cumulative drop of over 57%. At the beginning of June, the price was approximately $0.1337, indicating a significant lack of market confidence.

Stablecoin Crash: Core Driver Analysis

• This week, the supply of Hedera stablecoin plummeted from $214 million at the beginning of the month to $50 million, indicating that users or project parties are starting to redeem and withdraw liquidity;
• The decrease in stablecoin activities directly leads to a shrinkage in trading volume, which in turn depresses on-chain transaction fee revenue.

This phenomenon of “liquidity exhaustion” is seen as a potential “death spiral” signal in the chain.

Capital flow and ecological heat loss

• Fees: Daily average income has dropped from nearly $4,000 to $1,600, a decrease of over 60%;
• TVL: Total Locked Value plummeted from $352 million to $175 million;
• Major DApps such as Stader and SaucerSwap have seen a significant outflow of both users and funds, leading to a substantial decline in ecosystem activity.

Technical indicators suggest further downside.

Technical analysis shows that HBAR has formed a clear downward channel since its peak, with the lower support at $0.1236. If it breaks below this level, it will confirm a 27% downward space. At the same time, the 50-day EMA, MACD, and RSI all present bearish signals, making a quick reversal difficult in the short term.

How to grasp risks and opportunities

1. Track core indicators: Continuously monitor changes in stablecoin supply, transaction fees, and TVL.
2. Carefully choose entry and exit points: a fall to around $0.125 can be considered a short-term support, and if a reversal signal appears, then it is advisable to accumulate at lower levels;
3. Take profit and stop loss considerations: For short long positions, profit can be taken in batches near the resistance of $0.15;
4. Diversified investment: You can allocate 20-30% of your position to low market cap, high potential projects to hedge against risks.
5. Timely stop-loss: If the price falls below $0.12, decisive stop-loss should be taken to prevent further losses.