In the second half of 2025, DeFi TVL is expected to rebound to a range of approximately 142B–170B USD across different metrics. This article interprets the roles of Layer2, RWA, and Restaking, and provides potential breakout points and risk control highlights for the next stage of TVL.
The “three driving forces behind the rebound of TVL”
Layer 2 scaling and reduced user thresholds: Lower transaction costs directly enhance the appeal of DEX trading and AMM liquidity provision, allowing more small funds to participate, thus driving on-chain activity and TVL growth. On-chain monitoring shows that the TVS/TVL of L2 is rapidly accumulating.
RWA brings institutional-grade long-term capital: institutions prefer stable cash flows, RWA puts traditional notes, short-term debts, etc. on-chain, increasing the “low volatility locking” part of DeFi, thereby making TVL more robust. Quarterly reports and industry research both indicate a significant increase in RWA participation in Q3–Q4.
Restaking / Liquidity Reuse Enhances Surface Lockup: Through the reuse mechanism of staking rewards, a single underlying asset can simultaneously contribute to TVL in multiple protocols. This mechanism was frequently mentioned in 2025 and is an important explanatory factor for the rapid growth of TVL.
Future breakout point (short to medium term)
- Cross-chain aggregation and cross-chain liquidity: If cross-chain bridges and aggregators continue to reduce fragmentation, TVL will expand from “single chain” to more efficient cross-chain pools.
- AI-driven asset management products: AI-optimized strategies may improve asset utilization, attracting venture capital and wealth management institutions to enter the market.
Risk and Response
- Security risks remain high: large-scale exploits can still instantly consume TVL (recent attacks have reminded us of this). Both writing and investing should consider security audits and historical security records as important references.
- Misinterpretations caused by discrepancies in specifications: Always indicate “data source + cutoff time + whether it includes bridging/redundant calculations”. For example, real-time panels (DeFiLlama) and quarterly reports (IMF, Coingecko, Coindesk) can show discrepancies of billions of dollars.
Conclusion
The rebound in TVL indicates a return of funds and an improvement in ecosystem health, but when making decisions, TVL should be considered as “one of the indicators” rather than everything. By combining price, trading volume, contract security, and sources of funds, you can achieve a more robust judgment.
* The information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other recommendation of any sort offered or endorsed by Gate.
