Gold at $4,968 per ounce, silver at $77... After the plunge, a continued "range-bound adjustment" may occur
On the morning of the 19th (Korea time), international gold prices traded around $4,968.10 per ounce, slightly below the previous day’s close of $4,977.45. Recently, after multiple attempts to test the $5,100 level over eight consecutive trading days, prices have been fluctuating within the $4,900–$5,000 range, indicating a short-term correction trend continues. Silver prices stood at $77.07 per ounce, essentially unchanged from $77.19 the previous day. Similarly, silver, after being pushed down from the mid-$80s to the low $70s earlier last week, has now rebounded to the upper $70s.
Both gold and silver experienced a sharp decline recently, partially recovered some losses, and have been oscillating, showing a common trend. However, gold, due to its stronger safe-haven asset characteristics, is more sensitive to the US dollar, interest rates, and geopolitical risks; while silver, with a larger industrial demand share in solar, electrical, and electronic sectors, is viewed as an asset influenced by economic outlook and resource policy variables across countries. Consequently, silver prices tend to exhibit greater volatility and larger swings compared to gold, reflecting higher relative volatility.
The US-listed gold ETF—SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)—closed at $458.17 on the 18th (local time), rebounding from $448.20 the previous trading day. The ETF dipped near the $451 level in mid-last week but recovered along with spot prices to the upper $450s. The silver ETF—iShares Silver Trust (SLV)—closed at $70.09, up from $66.37 the previous day. Market analysis suggests that these products’ prices reflect a mix of short-term profit-taking and dip-buying behaviors among investors.
Regarding policy and geopolitical factors, discussions about emerging market central banks increasing gold reserves and monitoring US monetary policy paths are cited as background influences on gold prices. Since the Ukraine war, there has been a continued trend of central banks in emerging markets such as China, India, and the Middle East increasing their gold holdings in foreign exchange reserves, especially after some countries froze overseas assets. Coupled with global monetary policy directions and potential changes in the next Federal Reserve chair, the US dollar’s volatility has increased, and markets are viewing these factors as indirect variables affecting gold and silver prices.
From the combined analysis of spot and ETF price trends, the international market prices formed by physical demand and supply generally align with the movements of listed index funds in the financial markets, though daily differences exist. Due to intraday volatility, trading volume, and currency hedging needs, ETF price fluctuations can sometimes be amplified or delayed relative to spot prices. Recent significant changes in GLD and SLV trading volumes on specific dates indicate that, beyond physical supply and demand, short-term trading activity also influences price formation.
The current price trends of gold and silver are interpreted as the result of a complex interplay between safe-haven demand and risk asset adjustment in an environment characterized by geopolitical and policy uncertainties, global economic slowdown concerns, and market risk appetite. Particularly for gold, factors such as central bank gold purchase discussions, US dollar value changes, and the potential for future Fed rate cuts continue to support its role as a defensive asset. For silver, structural issues such as the designation of “critical minerals” in the US, China’s export licensing policies, and ongoing industrial demand and strategic resource supply concerns persist.
Some analysts believe that investor sentiment is generally leaning toward a short-term oscillation within a range of price corrections and rebounds rather than a clear directional trend. Both gold and silver, after recent peaks, are oscillating within certain bounds, with a mix of cautious waiting and defensive positioning. Notably, central bank gold purchase strategies and discussions on international monetary diversification are contributing to renewed attention on gold as a hedge against geopolitical and policy risks.
Gold and silver are inherently sensitive to interest rates, exchange rates, and geopolitical variables. In the short term, their prices may experience increased volatility due to policy statements, macroeconomic data releases, and news related to war and sanctions. Given their intrinsic value, safe-haven attributes, and industrial demand, some experts caution that future risks of short-term price fluctuations remain, especially amid changing international situations and financial environments.