U.S. financial industry job openings fall to 13-year lows: hiring demand plunges 75%, and rate cut expectations may rise

On March 9, news reports that hiring demand in the US finance and insurance industry is clearly shrinking. According to the latest data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve, by the end of 2025, job openings in the US finance and insurance sector have fallen to about 134,000, the lowest level since 2012. Market research firm The Kobeissi Letter pointed out that this trend may indicate the financial industry is preparing for a potential future layoffs cycle.

Data shows that since the industry’s hiring demand peaked in 2022, job openings in finance and insurance have decreased by approximately 410,000, a 75% decline. Since December 2025 alone, job openings have decreased by about 117,000. The current level of hiring demand is close to the levels seen during past recessions, even lower than the lows during the 2001 economic downturn.

The Kobeissi Letter analysis states that the current job vacancy rate in the finance industry has fallen to 1.9%, meaning fewer than 2 out of every 100 positions are vacant. This is the lowest ratio since February 2010. In comparison, during the 2008 global financial crisis, the industry’s largest monthly decline in job openings was 125,000, and the current contraction in hiring demand is approaching a similar level.

However, despite the decrease in hiring demand, overall employment in the finance industry has seen slight growth. The latest employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that in February, non-farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 92,000 jobs, but the finance sector still added about 10,000 jobs, making it one of the few sectors to expand.

The report notes that the employment decline that month mainly came from the healthcare sector. Due to a four-week strike by Kaiser Permanente employees, the industry reduced about 28,000 jobs in February, accounting for nearly 30% of the total employment decline that month. Additionally, the information industry, transportation and warehousing, and federal government jobs each decreased by about 11,000, 11,000, and 10,000 respectively.

Some media analysts believe that extreme weather may have had some impact on the employment data, but the extent of this impact is difficult to quantify. Market participants generally think that if signs of continued weakness in the US labor market emerge, it could increase the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the future. Changes in macro liquidity expectations may support risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, but at the same time, economic uncertainty could also lead investors to increase their safe-haven allocations.