BTC 15-minute rally of 0.85%: Fed policy shift and ETF capital resonance drive buying momentum

From 09:30 to 09:45 UTC on March 12, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) rapidly surged within a 0.93% amplitude range, with a return of +0.85%. The price hovered between 69,678.0 and 70,324.2 USDT, and trading volume increased approximately 38% compared to the previous hour’s average. Market attention surged significantly, and short-term bullish sentiment was notably amplified.

The main driver of this movement was the policy shift signal released by the Federal Reserve Chair early in the morning, hinting that future interest rate hikes might slow down. The market generally interpreted this as a marginal improvement in liquidity conditions, prompting funds to flow into risk assets. Meanwhile, during the movement, buy orders for BTC increased, reflecting large capital accelerating their positions through spot and perpetual contracts. On-chain data showed four large transfers (single transfer >1000 BTC) from cold wallets to exchanges, indicating institutional or major holder repositioning in advance. Positive ETF expectations, combined with favorable news released by mainstream media at 09:40, further reinforced optimistic sentiment, attracting significant off-exchange capital inflows. During the movement, net inflow reached 2,600 BTC, a 24% increase month-over-month.

Additionally, keywords such as “ETF progress” and “Fed shift” trended higher on social media. High-frequency quantitative trading repeatedly swept the order book to support bullish breakthroughs. Technical indicators also aligned: the 15-minute moving average crossed above the 60-minute moving average to form a “golden cross,” and RSI rose from 54 to 62, indicating active short-term buying. Global safe-haven assets moved in tandem, with some funds shifting into the crypto sector, creating a resonance effect that amplified market momentum and provided incremental energy for BTC’s short-term rally.

Given the enlarged intraday gains and profit-taking pressure, short-term volatility risks should be monitored. It is recommended to focus on subsequent large transfers, off-exchange capital inflows, ETF policy developments, and the ongoing impact of Fed statements on market liquidity. Key support levels and volume changes should be closely watched. Short-term investors should remain alert to rapid shifts in market sentiment and potential pullbacks, stay attentive to market movements, and seek in-depth information to respond reasonably to market changes.