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#BTC Halving effect and the overlap of policy dividends
Bitcoin in 2025 is standing at the intersection of two super cycles:
The fourth Halving effect:
The mining reward has decreased from 3.125 coins to 1.5625 coins, reducing the daily new supply by 50%. Historical data shows that the average increase in the second year after Halving is 500% (as seen in 2017 and 2021).
2. Trump's New Crypto Policy:
1 Abolish stringent regulations, promote Bitcoin as a "national strategic asset," and even consider the government stockpiling Bitcoin. Standard Chartered predicts that after the policy is implemented, BTC may surge to $200,000.
2 Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations: CME data shows that the probability of a rate cut in 2025 is over 70%. The global liquidity spigot is being reopened, and risk assets will welcome a "flooding".
Risk warning: The implementation of policies may not meet expectations, and the chain reaction of leveraged liquidations (such as the crash in early April that led to 440,000 liquidations) remains a looming threat.