Citigroup announced that the interest rate cut threshold is decreasing.

Citigroup analysts indicate that the upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's minutes from the June 17-18 meeting may read more dovishly, with the threshold for interest rate cuts declining.
Citi believes that although Powell maintained a neutral stance during the press conference following the June interest rate decision, the meeting minutes better reflect the content he did not explicitly state. Recently, several Federal Reserve officials have signaled a dovish tone, and as of June 2025, the year-on-year increase in the U.S. core PCE price index has been below the 2% target threshold for three consecutive months, providing an argument for the dovish camp within the Federal Reserve.
Citi expects the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates in September, with a cumulative reduction of 125 basis points before March next year, while the "wait-and-see" period for rate cuts may end by late summer. However, the meeting minutes may also reflect some officials' hawkish views, such as Cleveland Fed President Hammack suggesting that the policy rate could be maintained at current levels for an extended period. Nevertheless, Citi believes this is not the basic scenario of the committee, as "most" Fed officials expect to lower the policy rate before the end of the year. #BTC