🔎 Predictions about Jerome Powell and the upcoming interest rate decision

( 1 ) market indicators

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 0.25% interest rate cut at the meeting on 17-09-2025 is about 80%.

The likelihood of rates remaining at their current level of 4.25 – 4.50% does not exceed 21.6%.

Some estimates raise the probability to 93%.

( 2 ) Federal Reserve stance

In the meeting on 30 - 07 - 2025, the Federal Reserve kept the Interest unchanged at 4.25 – 4.50%.

Members ( Michel Bauman and Christopher Waller ) called for a 0.25% reduction, but the majority rejected it due to inflationary concerns.

Inflation is partly driven by new tariffs and trade policies.

( 3 ) economic and political factors

The labor market data for July showed a clear slowdown, which supports a rate cut soon.

President Trump is publicly pushing for a reduction in Interest to support economic growth and lower borrowing costs.

The new nominations in the Federal Council lean towards monetary easing.

( 4 ) Major institution estimates

Goldman Sachs: expects three additional cuts in 2025 and two cuts in 2026, to reach 3.00 – 3.25%.

J.P. Morgan: expects four rate cuts starting in September, bringing the rate to around 3.25 – 3.50%.

( 5 ) The balance within the Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve is currently adopting a "data-first" approach, with great caution regarding inflation.

Nevertheless, the markets strongly favor that September will be the beginning of a rate cut cycle.

✅ Summary

The likelihood is higher that Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve will lower the Interest by 0.25% at the meeting on 17 - 09 - 2025.

The markets are pricing this reduction at 80 - 90%.

Nonetheless, Powell will maintain a cautious tone and emphasize that any future decisions will depend on inflation data and the labor market.