Gold hits a new high and encounters resistance, while Bitcoin is stuck in a deadlock. When will the turning point appear?

The recent trends of gold and Bitcoin have diverged significantly; the former has repeatedly hit new highs before entering a correction, while the latter is showing characteristics of a "historical bottom" at low levels. The market is focusing on the rotation opportunities of these two major assets and the future upward trend of Bitcoin.

In terms of gold, it just hit a historical high of $4380 per ounce on Friday, then entered a correction mode with a drop of 2.90%, but the cumulative increase of 62.25% year-to-date still demonstrates strength. Over the past month, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) of gold has remained above 70 in the overbought range, indicating significant pressure for short-term profit-taking. However, institutional views are divergent; contrary to the market's expectation of a cooling gold price trend, HSBC remains bullish, predicting that due to geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and a weakening dollar, gold demand will remain strong and is expected to rise to $5000 per ounce by 2026. It is worth noting that this rise in gold is expected to be driven by long-term investors seeking portfolio stability rather than short-term speculation, and that after multiple overbought corrections in 2025, it can create even higher prices, confirming investor confidence amidst geopolitical and monetary uncertainties.

Bitcoin (BTC) has found a turning point during the gold adjustment period, rebounding from a nearly four-month low of $103,535, with an increase of nearly 4%. Its RSI indicator has dropped to the lowest level since April, forming a bottom structure that previously triggered a rebound of over 60%. The inverse performance compared to gold is seen by some analysts as a bottoming signal. Analyst Pat bluntly stated that Bitcoin is approaching a "generational bottom," supported by the performance of Bitcoin relative to gold over the past four years. From key indicators, the Bitcoin/gold ratio has sharply dipped to historical market bottom levels, a situation that last occurred in 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2022. Each time this ratio hit bottom, Bitcoin recorded increases of 100% to 600%. As of mid-October, this ratio has once again fallen below -2.5, indicating that Bitcoin may be undervalued compared to gold after it reached a new high of $4,380, potentially signaling the start of a new bull market.

Institutions and analysts are generally optimistic about the future price of Bitcoin. JPMorgan analysts predict that BTC will reach $165,000 by 2025, with the core logic being that it is still undervalued relative to gold; analyst Charles Edwards further points out that if Bitcoin breaks through the key level of $120,000, the price is expected to quickly surge to $150,000. The current market's core focus is whether gold's current pullback will replicate the market conditions seen at the 2020 peak, potentially becoming the trigger for a reversal in the Bitcoin bullish trend. #ETH反弹在即？ #巨鲸加仓2.5亿美元BTC