End of October Market Showdown Window: Three Major Variables in the Crypto Circle Under Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Precision Layout Guide

In the last two weeks of October, the global financial markets are entering a critical period of key battles that will set the tone for short-term trends, with the intensive landing of three core events directly becoming the "decisive factors" for cryptocurrency market movements. On one hand, the latest developments in the U.S.-China tariff policies are about to be revealed, and marginal changes in trade frictions may trigger emotional fluctuations in risk assets; on the other hand, the risk of a U.S. government shutdown remains unresolved, and the process of the budget bill is not expected to clarify until the end of the month, leaving room for continued disturbances in short-term market risk aversion. Among these, the interest rate decision at the Federal Reserve meeting on October 29 is undoubtedly the core variable determining the direction of market liquidity.

The current market consensus has basically formed: most institutions and traders predict that this interest rate meeting will implement a 25 basis point rate cut. Although this expectation has been partially digested in previous market trading, the actual implementation of the rate cut will still constitute a clear liquidity benefit. It should be noted that the transmission of the rate cut to the market has a "lag effect," usually requiring more than six months to fully release its impact. However, from a long-term perspective, the overall trend of liquidity easing will inevitably push up the "water level" of global assets gradually, which undoubtedly provides solid support for high-elasticity risk assets like cryptocurrencies in the medium to long term.

Returning to the short-term market, can cryptocurrencies experience a breakthrough rise before and after the interest rate cut? In my opinion, the probability of this is significantly high. This also adds a layer of strategic meaning to the current market correction—we must calmly assess whether this is a deliberate washout by the main funds before the critical policy node. It is known that funds often take advantage of the uncertainty before the implementation of policies, using fluctuations to clean up floating positions and to build momentum for subsequent trending markets, and this correction is precisely the golden window period for positioning quality assets.

It is worth noting that compared to the rate cut magnitude, the speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell after the interest rate meeting carries more "guiding" significance. The policy wording regarding future inflation trends, economic growth assessments, and hints about the subsequent rate cut path will directly determine the market's pricing logic and capital flow. If the speech emits dovish signals, it is likely to further ignite market risk appetite; conversely, if it reveals concerns about inflation and suggests a slowdown in the pace of future rate cuts, it may trigger short-term profit-taking.

Some investors may be expecting an "unexpected surprise," such as a significant cut of 50 basis points—if that were to happen, the cryptocurrency market would likely see a surge. However, rationally speaking, this possibility is very slim, with the core constraint being the stubborn performance of inflation in the U.S. According to the latest institutional forecasts, Goldman Sachs expects a 0.3% month-on-month increase in both overall and core CPI in September, with the core inflation rate remaining around 3.1%; Morgan Stanley's forecast is more cautious, predicting a month-on-month increase of 0.32% for core CPI and 3.12% year-on-year, while the overall CPI is expected to rise as much as 0.41% month-on-month. Given that inflation has not yet returned to the Federal Reserve's target range of 2% and there are risks of fluctuations, the decision-making space for significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is severely constrained, making a gradual and modest cut the most logical choice at present.

For cryptocurrency traders, the current core strategy is to "stay patient and position precisely": on one hand, closely monitor the Federal Reserve's decisions and policy statements, and be prepared to follow the trend after a breakout; on the other hand, for high-quality mainstream coins and leading projects with technical barriers, one can gradually accumulate positions during pullbacks while setting reasonable stop-loss intervals to avoid short-term volatility risks caused by policies falling short of expectations. The market game at the end of October is both a test of traders' professional judgment and a key opportunity to grasp the annual market trend. Only by seeing through the essence and responding calmly can one seize the initiative in the wave of liquidity reconstruction.

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