Who directed today's big dump? The collapse of yen arbitrage trading, with BTC becoming the first victim.

On December 1st, the highly anticipated closing month of the cryptocurrency market kicked off with a brutal opening black.

On Sunday evening Beijing time, Bitcoin plunged without resistance from above $90,000, hitting a low of $85,600, with a daily drop of over 5%. The altcoin market was even more devastated, and the fear index skyrocketed.

The surface trigger is a shocking rumor that is spreading wildly on social media: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will announce his resignation on Monday night.

But this is just the surface.

In this information cocoon, traders are scared out of their wits by the political gossip from Washington, yet they ignore the truly deadly danger signals coming from Tokyo. This is not just an emotional outburst triggered by rumors, but a textbook-level global macro deleveraging.

The real power of short selling comes from the Bank of Japan, which is quietly closing the door of the world's largest free ATM.

Washington's smoke screen: the startled bird of a fragile market

First, we need to break down the direct trigger that led to the market crash.

The news about Powell resigning on Monday night currently appears to be a typical FUD rumor. Powell's term will not end until 2026, and according to the official schedule, he will indeed give a public speech this Tuesday. The probability of a chairman resigning unexpectedly just before a scheduled speech is extremely low.

But the question is, why did the market believe it?

Because the soil of rumors is real. This soil is the central bank political game of the Trump 2.0 era.

This morning, President-elect Trump publicly stated that he will soon announce the nominee for the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. Currently, the most favored candidate is Kevin Hassett, the former economic adviser to the White House and a prominent dove.

This has triggered a deep anxiety on Wall Street: the narrative of the shadow Federal Reserve chairman is coming true.

The market is not worried about Powell resigning voluntarily, but rather about him being undermined or pressured by political forces. If Hassett or other Trump loyalists are established as his successors in advance, then Powell's policy authority during the remainder of his term will be significantly reduced.

The fear of this power vacuum, combined with the low liquidity over the weekend, has turned a poor rumor into a nuclear weapon for short sellers.

Tokyo's real bomb: a super contraction not seen in 17 years

If the rumors in Washington are like the wind, then the bond market in Tokyo is truly like a flag waving.
While we are focused on Twitter refreshing Powell's news, a quiet tsunami is occurring in the Japanese financial market: the yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has soared to around 1.1%, reaching the highest level since 2008.

This is not just a number; it is the end of an era.

1. Inflation can't be suppressed. Data released over the weekend showed that Tokyo's core CPI in November rose by 2.8% year-on-year, far exceeding market expectations. This is the leading indicator that the Bank of Japan values most. The data indicates that Japan's inflation has shifted from being input-driven to endogenous, and the central bank no longer has any reason to maintain its accommodative policy.

2. The Hawkish Ultimatum Although there are still doves like Toyo Nakamura calling for caution, the market has heard louder hawkish voices. The market is currently betting that the probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates between December 18 and 19 has soared above 60%.

This means that Japan - the only country in the world that has implemented negative interest rates and zero interest rates for decades - is being forced to move towards normalization.

Conclusion: The macro double kill in December

Standing at the starting point of December, we must clearly recognize that this month is no longer just a simple Christmas market, but a harsh macro pressure test.
We are facing two major tests:
December 10: Can the Federal Reserve fulfill the 87.6% rate cut expectation and maintain independence under the political shadow of Trump?
December 19: Will the Bank of Japan press the nuclear button to end the era of zero interest rates?
Today's big dump is just a rehearsal by the market for these two major tests.

For cryptocurrency investors, the strategy now should not be to bet on whether Powell will resign, a boring rumor, but to closely monitor the USD/JPY exchange rate and the yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds.

As long as the yen continues to appreciate, and as long as Japanese bond yields continue to reach new highs, the global deleveraging process is far from over. In the face of this enormous macroeconomic meat grinder, any K-line technical analysis appears powerless.

Don't catch flying knives. Wait for the wind in Tokyo to stop, then look at the clouds in Washington. #成长值抽奖赢iPhone17和周边 $BTC $ETH $ZEC