There is an 80% probability that this matter... Many people feel that the market looks quite good now, and whenever they see a pullback in one or two days, they always shout that a bull run is coming. But it's still the same saying, capital will never let you reap too large a profit. If it were really so kind-hearted, there would be no need for socialism to be so difficult. Therefore, those who advocate for a bull run or buy the dip, I personally do not hold a positive view right now. #十二月行情展望

Tonight, traders watching the market all saw the same number: 80%.

Do you think BTC breaking below 83000 is just a technical correction? Think again. The market is now frantically betting on the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike at the December meeting, with the probability already climbing to 80%—this directly targets the Achilles' heel of nearly 19 trillion USD carry trades in yen globally.

Once the yen starts to flow back, the funds that have been lurking in US stocks and cryptocurrencies will have to retreat. If you look back at the records, you will know: before Christmas 2022, the Bank of Japan just slightly adjusted the YCC policy, and the global market immediately turned red. On December 19 of this year, liquidity was originally tight, and any signal of tightening could trigger a chain reaction.

What's even more bizarre is that the Federal Reserve is silent. Powell is tight-lipped about policy, and this kind of silence is often not a good sign. If Japan tightens its policy while the U.S. does not inject liquidity, BTC might face a real test.

However, those who are panicking only see the risks, while smart money is already looking at the opportunities. The Federal Reserve recently opened a door for compliant stablecoin issuers - preparing to offer a "streamlined master account" that allows them to directly connect to the central bank's payment system. This is equivalent to issuing a pass to legitimate players like USDC, which will enhance both payment efficiency and credit backing. The next wave of dividends is likely to flow to DeFi protocols and infrastructure projects that deeply integrate compliant stablecoins.

Don't forget that after Japan's first interest rate hike in 2024, BTC hit a new high within three months. Now, there are key time points clustering: this week, Powell's speech, PMI data, and unemployment claims report are coming one after another, and the Bank of Japan's meeting in December and the Fed's dot plot will set the direction.

The market has already started to shake in advance. Should we follow the emotions, or wait until the bull market truly arrives before getting on board? The big wave often comes when everyone is holding their breath.

BTC tonight, which side are you on?