Some views on the future market

From last night's 25 basis point rate cut to the speech switching from hawkish to dovish, it's still the familiar Tai Chi
The market's original expectation was: “Rate cut begins -> Continued aggressive easing until 2026 -> Asset prices soar” The reality is: today they give you a piece of candy, and no crying allowed afterward. The expectation for 2026 is now only a 25 basis point cut or even no rate cut at all, with the precautionary rate cut ending and no further guidance provided. Maintaining relatively high interest rates in the future essentially signals a “bear market is coming” for the crypto space.
If inflation picks up and the economy doesn't fall into recession, there will be little reason to cut rates later. Many excuses for easing are gone, and although the pressure on the younger generation is high, there's really nothing to say.
Last night's hawkish then dovish stance was just to soothe the market, telling you that currently no one expects rate hikes as a baseline, but I never said there would be rate cuts!
Ethereum's recent movement is basically in line with our expectations from last night, peaking around 3440. After the data release last night, it immediately hit the top, and when the market realized there was no more “water,” panic-driven sell-offs began—more evident during the Asian trading session.
My personal view on the future is: “Bull” is gone, but “Bear”? Not necessarily.
It's only safe to say that there will be fewer moments of mindless long positions to make money. The crypto market will likely have less liquidity going forward, mainly focusing on short positions.