After reviewing the 2026 trend outlook reports from 5 top institutions: a16z, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock, I have distilled two value insights:

1) What bubble are we talking about? Will the AI industry enter a period of accelerated investment?

Morgan Stanley has given an astonishing figure: capital expenditure on AI infrastructure is expected to reach $3 trillion, currently deployed at less than 20%.

What concept? Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle, these super-scale cloud vendors, are now frantically spending money to build data centers, buy GPUs, and lay down power infrastructure, but this is just the beginning.

However, JPMorgan provided a calm assessment of the actual benefits brought by the large-scale adoption of AI, believing that in the short term it can only boost profits for some enterprises and help giants optimize their profitability narrative. To truly achieve a qualitative change in AI productivity and reap substantial benefits, it will take many more years.

In fact, it just mentioned one point: 2026 will still be a year of crazy spending on AI, but it is still only the investment period, far from the harvest moment;

2) Which side do you stand on regarding the concentration dividend of US stocks and the spillover to non-US markets?

BlackRock has proposed a concept called "Micro is Macro," suggesting that the AI investments of a few companies already have macroeconomic influence.

From the data, in 2025 YTD, the equal-weighted S&P 500 in the US stock market has only risen by 3%, while the market-cap-weighted version for leading tech companies has increased by 11%. This 8% gap may be attributed to the concentration dividend brought about by AI.

In this regard, Morgan Stanley is the most aggressive, directly setting a target of 7800 points for the S&P 500, which represents a 14% increase from now, citing that the profitability of the seven tech giants will continue to strengthen.

However, JPMorgan believes that as the dollar weakens, the AI dividend will spill over into the global supply chain, resulting in an expected annual return of 10.9% for emerging markets, higher than the 6.7% for U.S. large-cap stocks. Goldman Sachs also supports this spillover view, giving emerging markets the same expected return of 10.9%, believing that Europe at 7.1% and Japan at 8.2% also have opportunities.

In simple terms, these are two completely different bets: BlackRock and Morgan Stanley bet that the AI dividend will be continuously monopolized by American tech giants, while JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs bet that AI is a global infrastructure upgrade, and the dividends will spread to global non-US markets.