What does it mean that major institutions' predictions for the price of Bitcoin in 2025 have mostly failed? What insights does this provide for us ordinary people?

Making money through investment is not about predicting the future, but about correcting oneself.

We always need to find something to rely on, thinking that those large institutions managing hundreds of billions in funds must have some kind of "crystal ball" that we don't know about, and buying according to their research reports can't be wrong.

But after staring at those densely packed candlesticks and the bruised faces of the institutions for a long time, all my superstitions faded away. You will find that in the extremely complex game field of Bitcoin, even the top analysts on Wall Street sometimes have an accuracy rate worse than that of a gorilla throwing darts.

The true winners never bet on "guessing tomorrow," but rather can survive no matter what happens tomorrow.

The tricks inside have actually been seen through long ago. As Taleb, the author of "The Black Swan," repeatedly says, predicting in complex systems is just a joke. The key is whether you can not only avoid getting hurt in chaos but also become stronger.

If the market surges, do you have enough positions to take profit; if the market plummets, do you have enough cash flow to buy the dip? This is more useful than any target price.

Admitting your ignorance and acknowledging the uncertainty of the future is actually your biggest advantage in this market, as you are no longer gambling on a single outcome, but rather leaving room for all possibilities.

Stop asking how much Bitcoin will be worth next year, and ask yourself: if it drops to ten thousand or rises to one hundred thousand, will my trading logic still change?

In this noisy world, not being a prophet but being a responder is the only way out for ordinary people.