I used to underestimate prediction markets as well.

Looking back now, it's no longer just about guessing wins or losses.

From macro events to weather changes, everything is broken down into probabilities that can be priced and traded.

Some people focus solely on weather models for their livelihood, which sounds magical, but it's not at all false. Essentially, this is about directly monetizing information asymmetry.

Today's prediction markets are increasingly similar to the early days of the crypto space—some rely on judgment, some on structure, and some profit from arbitrage by moving assets around.

There is no standard answer, only whoever understands the rules earlier.

Many new opportunities are often hidden in places you initially overlook.