Non-farm + tariff ruling, are tonight's double catalysts?

Traders in the market are preparing for one of the most volatile trading days of the year. If the data is particularly good, everyone might think the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to cut rates, which could suppress the overall upward momentum.

If the data is particularly poor, it will also reduce overall market volatility. In other words, if the data doesn't meet expectations for a rise, it may face adjustments. One thing to note is that whether the data is too good or too bad, it could cause the market to pause and reconsider.

The market can't be said to be in a downturn; after all, the range this week has been decent, just lacking a strong rebound or decline pattern. The saying goes, "The shoe should fit the foot," and the same applies to the market. Overall, whether it's Bitcoin/Ethereum or a few altcoins, the fluctuations are completely in line with expectations.

Currently, the market continues to hover slightly after a rebound, with small-scale V-shaped reversals and oscillations. This indicates that although the bulls haven't launched a strong attack, the support below remains effective. In the short term, we are entering a tug-of-war phase between bulls and bears. On the technical side, the daily chart shows a long lower shadow, indicating strong buying pressure below. The current price is stabilizing around the 5-day and 10-day moving averages in the 93500-94700 range, which needs to be watched to see if it can break through effectively.

Ethereum still shows some strength, holding above the previously emphasized strong low point of 3050. The data on the chart confirms that many have bought the dip at high levels, chasing the rally. This approach often comes from impulsive trading—chasing gains blindly and selling in panic.

Friday's two events are very important. One is the release of non-farm payroll data. Currently, both good and bad unemployment data are considered positive. An increase in the unemployment rate might boost expectations for a rate cut by the Fed, while a decrease indicates that the US economy remains optimistic. However, a rate adjustment in January is unlikely; more adjustments after March will depend on the direct negotiations between Trump and the Fed.

Another more important event is the potential Supreme Court ruling on Trump's tariffs tomorrow. If the tariffs are deemed illegal, it would be positive for US inflation relief and could help the Fed decide to cut rates. However, for Trump and his administration, it might be uncomfortable and could impact his approval ratings. The support level below is around 3060-3080, where long positions can be added. The rebound target can be seen at 3150-3200, with a breakout above 3260 and resistance at 3300.

Bitcoin is long in the 89600-90000 range, with resistance at 91500-93000. If it rebounds above 940, the pressure at 94700 may be hard to hold. Similarly, the non-farm data release and the associated volatility require careful risk management!$BTC $ETH #非农就业数据