IV. Scarce Resources: A Panoramic View of the "Strategic Metals" in the AI Industry Chain

Why have "resource commodities" become the "hidden champions" of AI investment?
You might think AI investment is all about chips, servers, and high-tech, but what truly determines the economic lifeline of the AI era are the "strategic metals" lurking upstream in the industry chain. They are like the "fuel" for automobiles—without them, even the most advanced chips are useless scrap. By 2026, as AI computing power fully explodes, metals like molybdenum, tin, silver, and indium phosphide will usher in a historic super cycle—not just short-term speculation, but a guaranteed opportunity caused by supply and demand imbalances.
Today, let's talk plainly: Why are these metals so important? How strong is their price increase logic? How should ordinary people position themselves?
1. Molybdenum: The "bone marrow metal" of AI chips, super cycle from 2026-2028
Why is molybdenum a "must-have" for AI?
Think of molybdenum as the "reinforcement" for AI chips. As AI chips become smaller and generate more heat, traditional materials like copper and aluminum tend to deform and increase resistance under high power. Molybdenum has three major characteristics:
· High-temperature resistance: Melting point 2620℃, over 1000℃ higher than copper, so chips won't deform from heat;
· Strong stability: Coefficient of thermal expansion is only half that of copper, reducing the risk of cracking during expansion and contraction;
· Good electrical conductivity: Resistance is 15% lower than tungsten, enabling faster and more stable signal transmission.
Simply put, without molybdenum, high-performance AI chips are impossible. From NVIDIA's H100 to the next-generation Rubin chips, the core interconnect materials rely entirely on molybdenum.
How big is the supply-demand gap?
· Demand: The combined demand from AI chips, cooling, and power infrastructure (wind power, power grids) will see a global growth rate exceeding 5% in 2026;
· Supply: 45% of global molybdenum is in China, but China itself is not enough—by 2020, it shifted from an exporter to an importer; main producing regions like Peru and Chile face environmental restrictions, with almost no new mines coming online.
By 2025, molybdenum prices have hit a historic high, and in 2026, they may surge to $100,000 per ton (currently about $30,000).
2. Tin: The "only choice" for electronic solder, hidden big opportunity in a small market
Why is tin irreplaceable?
Tin is the "universal glue" for electronic products—every chip and circuit board relies on tin soldering. Its properties are unmatched:
· Low melting point: 231℃, safe for soldering without damaging chips;
· Good electrical conductivity: Low resistivity, stable signal transmission;
· Anti-oxidation: Solder joints won't rust, ensuring long lifespan.
AI servers, photovoltaic panels, automotive electronics all require大量 tin, especially AI servers, where tin usage per unit is three times that of traditional servers.
Why is supply and demand tight?
· Demand: The shipment of AI servers is expected to double in 2026, with tin demand increasing by 10% annually;
· Supply: 80% of global tin mines are concentrated in China, Indonesia, and Myanmar. Myanmar's suspension of mining in 2023 halved China's imports; new mines take 5-10 years to develop, making short-term supply impossible to meet.
In 2025, LME tin inventories hit a 10-year low, and prices may break through $30,000 per ton (currently about $25,000).
3. Silver: Driven by Photovoltaics + AI, the "gold for the poor"
Why did silver suddenly become popular?
Silver has two attributes, both currently exploding:
· Industrial attribute: 20 tons of silver are used per GW of photovoltaic panels, and the annual growth rate of silver used in AI server PCBs is 15%;
· Financial attribute: Scarcer than gold (global reserves are only 1/5 of gold), and sought after during inflation.
In 2026, global industrial demand for silver is expected to increase by 15%, but supply will only grow by 1.2% annually, creating a gap of 5,000 tons.
4. Indium Phosphide: The "hidden champion" of optical communication, the "cornerstone" of AI high-speed highways
Why is indium phosphide the "heart material" of AI optical communication?
Indium phosphide (InP) is the "king" among third-generation semiconductor materials, specifically solving the "high-speed transmission" problem. Think of it as the "highway material" for optical communication—AI needs to transmit massive amounts of data, and traditional silicon materials are unusable above 100G frequency bands. Indium phosphide can easily handle 100G, 400G, and even 800G optical modules.
Its core advantages:
· High electron mobility: 4 times that of silicon, enabling faster signal transmission;
· Excellent optoelectronic performance: can directly convert electrical signals into optical signals, making it the core material for lasers and photodetectors;
· Strong high-frequency characteristics: performs perfectly below 300GHz, suitable for high-speed internal connections in AI data centers.
Why is supply extremely tight?
· Demand: Upgrading AI optical modules from 800G to 1.6T increases indium phosphide substrate demand by 50% annually; the global indium phosphide laser market will grow from $2 billion to $5 billion in 2026;
· Supply: 80% of global indium phosphide capacity is concentrated in the US (AXT) and Japan (Sumitomo), with Chinese companies just beginning to break through; from synthesis to growth to processing, the cycle takes 6-8 months, far behind the pace of AI explosion.
5. The "Four-Step Rule" for Investing in Resource Stocks
For beginners investing in resource commodities, remember four things:
· Choose leading companies
· Watch supply and demand: only select "demand explosion + supply constraints" varieties, such as molybdenum (AI demand + copper mine byproduct restrictions), tin (AI demand + Myanmar export restrictions), indium phosphide (AI demand + technological barriers);
· Follow the rhythm: metals like indium phosphide and tin are highly volatile, so it’s recommended to buy on dips and avoid chasing highs; molybdenum and silver have long cycles, suitable for long-term holding;
· Avoid risks: be cautious of substitute technologies (e.g., indium phosphide may be partially replaced by gallium nitride), but believe that AI demand will not change within 3-5 years.
Final words for beginners
The core of competition in the AI era is resource competition. Molybdenum, tin, silver, and indium phosphide—these "strategic metals"—are like the "blood" of the AI industry chain. Without them, the entire AI skyscraper will collapse. 2026 marks the start of a resource super cycle. Investing in leading companies now is akin to standing at the forefront of a new era. Remember: investing is not about chasing hot topics but understanding supply and demand—scarce resources will never be cheap, and high technical barriers always carry a premium.
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