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Predicting market absurdities happens again
On Polymarket, the probability of the US government acknowledging the existence of aliens before 2027 continues to rise, currently at 11%
It sounds ridiculous, why are so many fools risking real money to bet on an alien arrival?
The answer lies in the rules of this contract:
If the US President, any cabinet member, Joint Chiefs of Staff member, or US federal agency explicitly states the existence of extraterrestrial life or technology before December 31, 2026, it is judged as “Yes,” otherwise it is judged as “No”
See the clue?
The key to this contract judging Yes is not whether aliens actually exist, but the attitude of the US government
Even if aliens do not exist or there is no concrete evidence, as long as Trump declares their existence, then they are considered to exist — a classic “American exceptionalism”
Given Trump’s crazy behavior this year, the market believes it’s possible he might do this...