【BTC 4H Technical Structure In-Depth Analysis | Breakout Confirmation and Downward Space Projection】#欧美关税风波冲击市场

Trend Qualitative and Core Evolution
Bitcoin on the 4-hour chart confirmed a break below the key zone of 89800-90000, accompanied by increased trading volume. The price remains below all moving averages, indicating a shift in the balance between bulls and bears, entering an accelerated bearish phase. The current price is in an "oversold" state with a "disconnected" condition, showing strong downward momentum.

Multi-Dimensional Technical Structure Analysis

1. Moving Average System and Dynamic Resistance:
· Bearish divergence among moving averages, with MA5 (~89828) coinciding with the breakout level, forming a "high-pressure line" for rebounds. MA20 (~92750) and other medium-term averages above create distant resistance.
· Price far from the moving averages suggests a technical rebound demand, but the strength of the rebound will determine the subsequent downward pace.
2. Key Price Levels and Structural Transition:
· Resistance Reconfiguration: 89800-90500 has turned into a solid resistance zone, serving as a gauge for rebound strength.
· Downward Target: The immediate target after a breakout is the previous low of 87800 USD. If this level is lost, it opens the downtrend channel toward 86000-85000.
3. Momentum Indicators Verification:
· MACD: The two lines are diverging below the zero axis, with the histogram lengthening, confirming accelerated bearish momentum.
· Volume: Increased volume during the breakout confirms genuine selling pressure, making a V-shaped reversal in the short term unlikely.
· RSI: Currently at 24.58 in the oversold zone. In a trend, it may become dulled; a bottom divergence between RSI and price is needed to indicate potential exhaustion of momentum.

Core Market Observation and Projection

1. Rebound Nature: Focus on the rebound strength after testing the 87800 support. If it cannot approach the 89800 resistance, it indicates a weak rebound with a high probability of further decline.
2. Bottom Signal: Trend reversal requires constructing a structure like a "double bottom" on the 4-hour chart at key support levels, confirmed by MACD bottom divergence, shrinking volume, and other signals.
3. Market Linkage: A break below by BTC will exert significant pressure on ETH, SOL, and other cryptocurrencies, warning of resonance-driven declines.