#预测市场交易行为 Seeing this insider trading case related to the Maduro incident, my first reaction is—this is exactly why we need to stay vigilant.

A $32,500 bet turned into over $400,000 in less than 24 hours, a 1200% return. It sounds unbelievable, but the underlying logic is even more chilling: after creating an account, this guy only made four trades, all pointing to the same political event, and started accumulating hours before the information was publicly disclosed. On-chain data suggests his funds may come from a high-level executive wallet, with a 99% match in timestamps.

This is not investing; it’s outright insider trading.

Prediction markets are inherently good—they reflect real information. But the problem now is—those with access to significant non-public information are turning it into a cash machine. Having been in this space for many years, I’ve seen too many people rush into new concepts out of FOMO, only to get completely wiped out. Prediction markets have now become a new tool for cutting the leeks.

What is the true defensive strategy? First, avoid markets with abnormal volatility, especially those involving politics or sudden events. Second, if you see a trading logic from an account that makes no sense, don’t follow the trend. Third, remember a simple truth: if a trade’s profit seems impossible, it probably really is—unless someone has more information than the market.

Legislators are starting to act now, which indicates the problem has been exposed. But before the system is improved, all we can do is prevent ourselves from becoming the lambs to the slaughter in this game.