Short-term technical outlook is bearish, but it is approaching an important support level: currently, moving averages are in a bearish alignment, and the price is declining with increased volume, indicating strong short-term selling pressure. However, the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $87,500 is a recognized mid-term critical level. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts has entered oversold territory, suggesting that after a continuous decline, the market has a technical rebound demand in the short term.

"Smart money" versus "panic selling": Although market panic has caused retail and short-term traders to sell off, on-chain data shows that addresses holding large amounts of Bitcoin (whales) are continuously increasing their holdings during the decline. This forms a classic "bullish divergence," indicating that well-informed large investors see this correction as a buying opportunity.

The macro environment is the main source of pressure: the fundamental driver of this decline stems from the global macroeconomic situation. The sharp sell-off of long-term Japanese government bonds has triggered volatility in the global bond markets. Coupled with geopolitical tensions, this has led to a "sell US" trading pattern, with funds flowing out of risk assets like US stocks and US bonds and into traditional safe-haven assets such as gold. Bitcoin, as a high-risk asset, has also been affected.