Multiple analysts analyze Bitcoin's sideways trading dilemma: ETF monopoly as the driving force, institutions absent and observing

After intense volatility in Q4 2025, Bitcoin has been consolidating around $90,000 for several weeks. Recently, multiple industry analysts have provided in-depth interpretations of this market phenomenon, believing that in the context of institutional funds not yet fully entering the market, Bitcoin is unlikely to break through the existing range in the short term.

Gerry O’Shea, Head of Global Market Insights at Hashdex, pointed out that although the shift in U.S. monetary policy and potential cryptocurrency legislation in Congress could bring bullish signals, at this stage, Bitcoin remains trapped in a range-bound pattern. This view has resonated with several other analysts.

Market Analysts’ Views: ETF as the Only Driving Force, On-Chain Activity Significantly Cooling

The market structure has quietly shifted. Jim Ferraioli, Head of Cryptocurrency Strategy at Charles Schwab’s (Financial Research Center, analyzed that after reaching a historic high, on-chain activity has noticeably cooled in the past few months. “Transaction fees are subdued, long-term holders are taking profits, and Bitcoin balances on exchanges have fallen to historic lows,” he said. “The current market trend is entirely driven by ETF capital flows.”

This structural change has made investing in Bitcoin more convenient, but analysts also pointed out that it could distort short-term market signals. Jim Ferraioli emphasized that genuine institutional large players have not yet fully entered the market. Once relevant legislation is enacted, it could potentially drive Bitcoin prices higher.

Institutional Giants on the Sidelines, Analysts Expect New Policies to Turn the Tide

Hyunsu Jung, CEO of Hyperion DeFi, stated that as the ETF capital influx at the beginning of the year recedes, the narrative around Bitcoin is changing. In the absence of a new wave of institutional funds or a shift in the overall economy (such as rate cuts), he expects Bitcoin to remain in a consolidation phase.

Will Reeves, CEO of fintech company Fold, expressed a more direct view. He believes Bitcoin is currently severely undervalued, and the market is waiting for selling pressure to fully exhaust itself and for a new wave of buying to step in. This reflects analysts’ focus on supply and demand cycles.

From Bear Market Cycles to Adoption Rate Breakthroughs: Summary of Analysts’ Perspectives

Regarding whether the market has entered a new “crypto winter,” opinions among analysts vary. Jim Ferraioli pointed out that, according to traditional definitions, Bitcoin is indeed in a bear market. However, considering Bitcoin’s high volatility, a 30% correction is not uncommon.

It is noteworthy that, looking back at the November 2022 lows, Bitcoin surged to a record high of $126,080 in October 2025, increasing eightfold in three years. Analysts generally believe that the market is now in a digestion phase, requiring time to absorb this massive rally.

Although Bitcoin always has some degree of correlation with the US stock market, it still has its own drivers: money supply, deflationary supply growth mechanisms, and most importantly, adoption rate. Several analysts believe that whether adoption rates can break through is the biggest focus of this year’s market and will be a key variable in determining Bitcoin’s future trajectory.