US September CPI Release Time and Bitcoin Market Reaction

In mid-October 2024, the upcoming release of the US September CPI data had generated intense attention in the crypto market. This data release not only marked the first major macroeconomic indicator after the US government shutdown but also became a key reference for the Federal Reserve in formulating its next policy move. At that time, market participants were highly期待 about this data, which was closely related to Bitcoin’s price movement.

According to analyses at the time, the US September CPI release was scheduled for Friday, October 24th, which was extremely rare. Analysts from “The Kobeissi Letter” pointed out that this was the first time since January 2018 that CPI data was released on a Friday, and it was only five days before the Federal Reserve’s October 29th meeting—such a short interval significantly amplified the market impact of the data.

Market Significance of CPI Data and Inflation Rate Changes

At that time, the US August inflation rate was 2.9%, slightly up from 2.7% the previous month, raising concerns whether September would see further increases. Economists at Wells Fargo projected that September inflation could rise to around 3.1%, but still within a moderate inflation range. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, was viewed as a more accurate indicator of underlying inflation pressures, and the market generally expected this figure to remain stable.

Since the US Department of Labor had suspended the release of other key economic data until the government shutdown ended, this CPI report became the only reliable measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve. This “single indicator reliance” phenomenon was uncommon historically and greatly increased the market importance of the data.

Federal Reserve Policy Expectations and USD Trends

According to the CME FedWatch Tool at the time, the probability of a rate cut at the October 29th meeting was as high as 99%, with an approximately 85% chance of another rate cut in December. This indicated that market traders widely anticipated a dovish policy environment.

Analysts pointed out that if CPI data came in below expectations (indicating further easing of inflation), it would reinforce dovish expectations, weaken the USD, and potentially boost risk assets like gold and stocks. Conversely, if the data exceeded expectations, it could temporarily boost rate hike expectations, strengthening the USD and US Treasury yields. Such shifts in policy expectations would have a direct and profound impact on the USD and risk assets like Bitcoin.

Market Reaction of Bitcoin Price

Analysts from Kautious Data emphasized that CPI has a direct impact on Bitcoin. If the core CPI month-over-month increase was below 0.3%, it would favor dovish policy expectations and support risk assets like Bitcoin. However, if inflation data showed “stickiness”—especially if service prices and housing costs rose more than 0.4% month-over-month—it could boost the USD and exert downward pressure on Bitcoin.

At that time, Dean Chen from Bitunix noted that if CPI data met expectations, Bitcoin might remain range-bound near recent highs. But if core CPI was stronger than expected, it could trigger a short-term correction from the highs. Conversely, if the data was significantly below expectations, it might restart ETF capital inflows, pushing Bitcoin toward the $117,000 to $120,000 range.

Volatility and Opportunities Post-Data Release

Based on historical patterns in the crypto market, prices often rise before the data release but tend to retrace after, with increased volatility and a reversal in capital flows. Dean Chen added that traders should pay close attention to the real-time movements of US Treasury yields and the USD after the data release—if both rise simultaneously, it would pressure Bitcoin; if both decline, risk appetite could be reignited.

Overall, the timing of the US September CPI release served as a market turning point, with unprecedented attention at that time. In the context of the government shutdown causing missing economic data, this report became the Federal Reserve’s sole policy reference and a crucial factor in Bitcoin’s short-term direction. Volatility remained high around the release, and the continued inflow of ETF capital and shifts in policy expectations ultimately determined whether Bitcoin could regain upward momentum after the data was published.