Towards an institution-led new era? Ark Invest predicts Bitcoin reaching a maximum of $1.5 million by 2030

Ark Invest’s digital asset analyst David Puell recently issued an important judgment: Bitcoin is no longer facing the “believe it or not” problem, but has entered a new stage of “how to allocate and where to invest.” This marks Bitcoin’s transformation from a niche investment to an institutional-grade asset.

As of January 2026, Bitcoin’s price is approximately $89,900, and Ark Invest’s latest valuation model predicts that by 2030, Bitcoin will reach three different scenarios: $300,000 in the conservative scenario, $710,000 in the base case, and up to $1.5 million in the most optimistic scenario.

From “Should I Invest” to “How Much to Invest” — Bitcoin Enters Maturity

David Puell pointed out that during past bull and bear cycles, the market was still concerned about infrastructure. Now, the focus of discussion has completely shifted: it is no longer “Should I buy Bitcoin,” but rather “How much should I hold and through which channels to enter.”

Behind this shift is the explosive growth of the US Bitcoin spot ETF. Since its approval for listing in early 2024, these ETFs have absorbed over $50 billion in net inflows in less than 24 months, becoming the strongest capital channel in the crypto market. Among them, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) have attracted most of the funds, holding hundreds of thousands of Bitcoins combined.

Scarcity Race Under $50 Billion Net Inflows

More noteworthy is that these ETFs and corporate reserve strategies have collectively absorbed about 12% of the global circulating supply of Bitcoin. This figure far exceeds market expectations, directly reducing the available circulating supply of Bitcoin and increasing market awareness of scarcity.

David Puell emphasized that this absorption force has become the main driver of price trends from 2025 to 2026, and its influence may continue into 2026 or even longer. The entry of institutional funds not only enhances market liquidity but more importantly, changes the supply structure.

Intense Long vs. Short Battle, but Institutional Buying Is the Main Player

The past year has seen an exciting power struggle in the market: on one side are the “ancient whales” holding Bitcoin for over 10 years cashing out at highs, and on the other side, institutional funds are疯狂扫货 through ETFs, digital asset reserve companies (DAT), and other emerging channels.

Although the long and short forces are fiercely competing, the overall direction remains unchanged — the institutionalization wave has become an unstoppable trend. Ark Invest believes that this structural shift is far more significant than any single price figure.

Volatility Hits New Lows, Mature Investors Lead the Market

An interesting phenomenon appears in volatility data. David Puell found that Bitcoin’s volatility has dropped to historic lows, and risk-adjusted returns have significantly improved.

Past bull markets were often accompanied by deep retracements of 30% to 50%, but since the bottom in 2022, the maximum drawdown has been only about 36%. A key reason behind this is the increasing presence of mature institutional investors in the market, who do not chase highs blindly but instead rationally allocate during retracements, effectively reducing market emotional volatility.

2030 Valuation Predictions — From Conservative to Optimistic

Ark Invest’s valuation framework presents target prices under different scenarios:

Conservative Scenario: $300,000

• Core logic: Viewing Bitcoin as “digital gold,” a pure store of value
• This valuation already implies significant upside potential

Base Case: $710,000

• Core logic: Institutional capital begins to enter on a large scale, but penetration has not yet peaked

Optimistic Scenario: $1.5 million

• Core logic: Truly comprehensive entry of top global institutions and national-level funds

David Puell added that the true explosive potential comes from the full penetration of institutional funds, not just Bitcoin’s role as a store of value.

Clearer Regulations and Reserve Strategies, Long-term Structural Benefits

Looking further into the future, David Puell pointed out that several structural factors will support Bitcoin’s long-term upward trend:

Regulatory Environment: Regulatory clarity brought by the Trump administration has shown the market the possibility of policy support; state and local governments like Texas have also implemented favorable policies for the crypto industry, forming long-term positives.

Strategic Reserves: The idea of the US establishing Bitcoin strategic reserves, although not necessarily creating new demand directly, will shape a more stable holding structure and reduce market volatility risks.

Ark Invest’s final judgment is that Bitcoin is transforming into a “low-volatility, institutionally widely held, highly liquid” mature asset. Rather than predicting specific prices, it is more important to understand the logic behind this transformation — the era of institutionalization has arrived, and Bitcoin’s future has entered a new era dominated by institutional allocation demand.