"Buy USD or chase Bitcoin?" Analyzing market capital flow for investment opportunities

The recent cryptocurrency market has been lively, with Bitcoin breaking through resistance levels after months, while the US dollar faces depreciation expectations. The underlying capital flow logic behind this warrants attention. As an investor, should you continue to buy dollars, or seize this wave of crypto asset recovery? The answer may be hidden in the subtle changes in the market.

As of mid-month, Bitcoin fluctuated around $89,640. In just a few hours, the price surged to $90,570, then retreated to $87,260, showing significant volatility. The key to this rally is that Bitcoin broke through the psychological barrier of $95,000, which had repeatedly acted as a “final destination” for bulls, accumulating heavy selling pressure. Now that this line has been breached, it is seen by the market as an important signal of sentiment reversal.

Technical Breakthrough: $95,000 is No Longer a “Steel Plate”

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has opened up upward space toward the $100,000 to $106,000 range. FxPro Chief Market Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich pointed out that support is at psychological levels below, while technical resistance is at the 200-day moving average above. He emphasized that Bitcoin not only remains above $95,000—its recent high—but also far exceeds the 50-day simple moving average, with an overall bullish alignment.

This technical improvement, coupled with a surge in trading volume, indicates that this rally is not a false move but driven by new buying demand. Funding rates in the perpetual contract market remain low, suggesting that there is no excessive speculation or leverage out of control, which is a positive sign for the sustainability of the upward trend.

Capital Reallocation: Risk Assets Heating Up Across the Board

The seemingly simple rise of Bitcoin actually reflects broader asset rotation. Singapore-based crypto trading firm QCP Capital pointed out that recent strength in precious metals, as safe-haven assets during geopolitical turmoil, is indirectly supporting the crypto market. The logic is: when precious metals gain buying interest due to depreciation expectations, Bitcoin, as “digital gold,” becomes more valuable in relative terms, attracting capital back into the space.

This explains why buying dollars is no longer the top choice. The overall economy is currently in the so-called “Goldilocks Scenario,” meaning it is neither too hot nor too cold. U.S. employment data remains solid, inflation levels are relatively stable, and risk appetite is warming across markets. Signs of capital reallocation are evident in stocks, precious metals, the dollar, and cryptocurrencies. In this environment, the appeal of defensive assets like the dollar is relatively diminished.

Options Data Reveals Market Consensus: $100,000 Is Just Around the Corner

Data from Deribit, the world’s largest crypto options exchange, further confirms market sentiment. In the past 24 hours, call options (bullish options) with strike prices at $96,000, $98,000, and $100,000 have seen the most trading activity, indicating that the market is actively betting on Bitcoin moving toward a “six-figure price.”

LMAX Group strategist Joel Kruger said that Bitcoin breaking through $95,000 is a signal of risk appetite returning to the overall crypto market. This rally has rekindled bullish momentum, with investors refocusing on the $100,000 level, and even potentially challenging new all-time highs. The stability of traditional financial markets also provides support—recently, U.S. stocks have remained steady, and bond yields have stabilized, creating a favorable environment for a crypto rebound.

From Gold Strength to Crypto Revival: Has the Era of Buying Dollars Ended?

If Bitcoin can close weekly above $95,000, or Ethereum effectively breaks through $3,500, these will serve as important confirmation signals for a new upward trend. At that point, investors who have been conservative and chosen to buy dollars may face pressure to reconsider their asset allocation.

As risk assets heat up across the board and capital continues flowing into cryptocurrencies, the traditional strategy of buying dollars no longer aligns with the current market rhythm. This does not mean the dollar will collapse, but in the “Goldilocks” economic environment, the warming of risk appetite is redefining the relative attractiveness of assets.