BTC heading towards $2.9 million: Asset allocation ratio becomes the key

Asset management firm VanEck’s latest research report presents an ambitious long-term vision, estimating that Bitcoin could potentially break through the $2.9 million mark within the next 25 years. The core logic of this research is not simply price prediction but is based on an important premise: if Bitcoin can become a significant component of the global financial system, its true value will far exceed current levels. As of January 2026, BTC’s current price is approximately $89,960, leaving considerable room for upward growth.

VanEck’s Long-Term Outlook: Stable 15% Annual Return

VanEck’s analysis team, led by Digital Asset Research Director Matthew Sigel and senior analyst Patrick Bush, authored the report titled “Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions.” They employed a “Base Case” valuation model, projecting that over the next 25 years, Bitcoin’s annualized return will remain around 15%.

Such stability in annualized returns is rare among traditional financial assets. Notably, VanEck does not use conventional stock valuation methods such as P/E ratios or discounted cash flow models. Instead, they simulate different “application scenarios” to assess Bitcoin’s potential value, a methodology more aligned with the valuation logic of emerging assets.

Two Key Preconditions for Success: Trade Settlement and Central Bank Reserves

The two critical assumptions supporting the $2.9 million target are: first, that Bitcoin will become a “global trade settlement asset,” eventually handling 5% to 10% of global trade settlement volume; second, that some central banks, aiming to diversify risk and reduce reliance on a single sovereign currency, will gradually allocate a tiny portion of their foreign exchange reserves to Bitcoin.

However, VanEck openly admits that these assumptions are still far from current realities. Bitcoin’s role in global trade settlement is almost negligible, and no central bank has officially designated Bitcoin as an official reserve asset. Achieving these goals still heavily depends on regulatory clarity, the maturity of blockchain infrastructure, and broad political acceptance.

Asset Allocation Ratio Determines Risk: 1-3% as a Gold Standard

From an investment portfolio perspective, VanEck’s research offers a practical recommendation: allocating 1% to 3% of a diversified portfolio to Bitcoin can significantly enhance risk-adjusted returns. This asset allocation is not arbitrary but results from careful calculations.

The logic is that, despite Bitcoin’s high volatility, its limited allocation proportion prevents proportionally amplifying overall portfolio risk. In other words, a small asset allocation can bring better risk-return balance to the portfolio. This strategy is especially valuable for investors seeking diversification and hedging against single-asset risks.

High Volatility with High Potential: Emerging Market Characteristics

While optimistic in the long term, VanEck also acknowledges that the road to $2.9 million will not be smooth. The forecast predicts that Bitcoin’s long-term annualized volatility will remain high, between 40% and 70%, a characteristic more akin to “frontier markets” (regions with less developed markets) rather than traditional mature financial assets.

In other words, investors should expect significant short-term fluctuations along this journey. Nonetheless, even under the most conservative “Bear Case” scenario, VanEck predicts Bitcoin can maintain positive growth, driven by its increasing “structural importance” within the global financial system.

Macro Liquidity and Accelerating Globalization

From a macroeconomic perspective, VanEck highlights an interesting phenomenon: Bitcoin’s price correlation with global liquidity changes is higher than its correlation with stocks or commodities. This indicates that Bitcoin’s connection to the broad money supply is emerging, while its correlation with the US dollar’s movements is gradually weakening.

These signs suggest that Bitcoin’s price drivers are becoming more globalized, and its role as a global asset is increasingly clear. Against the backdrop of coordinated global central bank liquidity policies, Bitcoin’s price discovery mechanism is continuously evolving.

Conclusion: Rational Long-Term Asset Allocation

VanEck’s research essentially provides a rational framework for long-term asset allocation. The $2.9 million figure is not an overly ambitious price target but a valuation based on specific assumptions. The key takeaway is understanding how much value Bitcoin could hold as it evolves from a purely trading asset into a vital component of the global financial system. Regarding asset allocation, a 1% to 3% range offers investors a relatively rational and feasible reference point.