US Non-Farm Payrolls data successfully cleared the way, Bitcoin is gathering momentum as liquidity recovers

Last week, the global financial markets experienced a critical “data cycle,” with major events such as U.S. non-farm payrolls, inflation indicators, and Japan’s interest rate hike sequentially unfolding. The release of these economic signals directly reshaped market expectations for the future, and Bitcoin also began seeking new support points amid this wave of macro liquidity changes. After reaching a historical high of $126,000 in early Q4 2025 and then consecutively retracing, BTC is currently oscillating around $90,100, having retreated over 30% from last month’s high. The key question now is: Is this correction a cyclical repair, or are we entering a deeper bear market trap?

Dense Economic Data Landing, U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls as a Key Turning Point

In mid-month, the U.S. Department of Labor released non-farm employment data showing subtle changes in the labor market. In October, non-farm payrolls decreased by 105,000, but in November rebounded with an increase of 64,000, seemingly indicating recovery. However, underlying signals suggest weakening employment momentum — the unemployment rate in November rose back to 4.6%, hitting a new high since 2022.

Meanwhile, the softening trend in U.S. non-farm data contrasted interestingly with the subsequent CPI data. November’s CPI rose 2.7% year-over-year, well below the expected 3.1%, and core CPI increased 2.6% annually, also significantly below the forecasted 3%. These figures seem to tell a “soft landing” story: moderate employment decline and decelerating inflation. However, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics previously warned that CPI data collection was affected by government shutdown impacts, and its reliability needs to be verified over the coming months.

A crucial turning point occurred with the Bank of Japan’s rate hike decision. The BOJ unanimously agreed to raise the policy rate from 0.50% to 0.75%, reaching the highest level in 30 years. This move directly impacted the long-standing carry trade expectations — the logic of yen appreciation and dollar weakening was restructured, leading to subtle shifts in international capital flows. As the BOJ’s rate hike was implemented and market pricing adjusted, U.S. stocks experienced the “Triple Witching” day on Friday (simultaneous expiration of stock index options, futures, and single-stock options) with a nominal $7.1 trillion in derivatives settlement. The settlement day performed steadily, with the three major U.S. indices even closing at new highs.

On-Chain Buying and Selling Imbalance, Retail Exit vs. Whale Inflows Continue

Against the backdrop of easing macro liquidity, the Bitcoin market shows complex participant dynamics. According to on-chain data analysis, the so-called “long-term holders” (institutions and large investors holding for longer periods) are continuing to sell — nearly 90,000 BTC were activated last week and shifted to short-term holdings, with over 12,000 directly flowing to exchanges in preparation for sale. The combined sell-off from long and short-term holders reached 174,000 BTC, slightly below the previous week but still at high levels.

Contradictorily, exchange data shows only slight accumulation rather than accelerated outflows, often a pessimistic signal. However, the 30-day rolling exchange sell volume is decreasing daily, indicating that the most aggressive selling phase is passing. Yet, this waning selling impulse is not due to restored market confidence but suggests another hidden factor — net capital outflows from the crypto market.

Since bottoming out at the end of November, funds briefly showed inflows but turned back to outflows last week, affecting both stablecoins and ETF channels. This is the fundamental reason for Bitcoin’s second dip and weak rebounds: the number of willing sellers is decreasing, but the buying capacity is also diminishing.

The Fundamental Cause of Weak Short-term Rebound: Simultaneous Capital Outflows and Selling

Market structure insights reveal the current dilemma: retail investors are continuously withdrawing both on-chain and through ETF channels, having lost hope. Conversely, institutional investors (DATs) and whale large holders are increasing their holdings. These two groups have demonstrated high success rates in the past two bullish markets and have become the main drivers shaping market trends.

From a supply perspective, currently 67% of BTC are in profit, while 33% are in loss. This ratio marks the lowest since the start of this bull market, indicating that “long-term losers” are creating record highs. Although savvy whales are entering, the large-scale exit by retail investors leaves the market lacking sufficient absorption capacity, creating an awkward situation of “sellers weakening but buyers even weaker.”

The Next Key: Will ETF Funds Re-enter?

The outlook hinges on this week’s ETF fund flows. If institutional confidence recovers and funds flow back into spot ETFs, BTC could once again challenge the $94,000 psychological level, with a chance to recover $103,000 — the break-even point for mid-term retail investors from the previous cycle.

Conversely, if outflows persist, the market may retest lows, plunging fully into a bear market. Fortunately, macro financial risks have been temporarily alleviated. The “minefield clearing” of CPI, employment data, and Japan’s rate hike means that sharp liquidity shocks are unlikely in the short term. Traders are already anticipating a “Christmas rally” and are waiting for new data in January to re-position the market.

While BTC has not yet shown clear trend reversal signals, macro-level risks are temporarily lifted, laying the groundwork for a potential rebound.