The dilemma: How can Telegram and TON balance growth and risk?

The boundary between financial performance and actual reality is becoming the core challenge Telegram faces. According to the latest financial information, this telecom giant achieved record-high revenue in the first half of the year, but its net profit fell into loss. Behind these seemingly contradictory figures lies a “penetration” of virtual asset fluctuations into traditional financial reports—and increasingly complex interests between Telegram and the TON blockchain.

Financial Penetration: The Truth Behind Record Revenue and Net Loss

Telegram’s financial performance in the first half of the year has been impressive. Unaudited financial statements show the company generated $870 million in revenue, a 65% increase year-over-year, far exceeding the $525 million in the first half of 2024; even more astonishing is an operating profit approaching $400 million.

However, this impressive report conceals a troubling turn—ultimately, the company posted a net loss of $222 million.

The main reason behind this is the continued weakness in TON token prices. During the deep adjustments throughout 2025, TON tokens once fell by over 73%. As a company holding a large amount of tokens, this price movement directly impacted the financial statements. According to accounting standards, the company had to revalue its holdings of TON assets, resulting in virtual asset losses reflected on the profit and loss statement.

Looking at revenue composition, Telegram is not suffering from weak advertising or subscription services. Advertising revenue grew 5% to $125 million, while premium subscription income soared 88% to $223 million. The key driver of revenue growth, however, comes from exclusive agreements with the TON blockchain—these brought nearly $300 million in related income to Telegram.

In fact, the entire revenue growth story of Telegram is gradually shifting from traditional business to the crypto ecosystem. Of the $1.4 billion annual revenue in 2024, about 50% comes from “partnerships and ecosystem.” This means Telegram is deeply tied to TON and is closely linking its growth prospects with the performance of this public chain.

This also explains why this boundary—the control Telegram has over its relationship with TON—has become particularly critical.

Token Dispersion Boundary: How Telegram Balances Shareholding and Decentralization

Community skepticism towards Telegram stems from a figure: the company has sold over $450 million worth of TON tokens. This scale exceeds 10% of TON’s current circulating market cap, sparking heated debate over “cash-out or fulfill promises.”

Pavel Durov, founder of Telegram, publicly committed as early as 2024 to keep the company’s TON holdings below 10%. The purpose of this boundary setting is clear—prevent excessive concentration of tokens in a single entity, which could undermine the project’s decentralization, while also raising funds for Telegram’s development.

According to Manuel Stotz, Chairman of the board of TONX, the Nasdaq-listed company managing TON treasury, all TON tokens sold by Telegram are subject to a four-year vesting schedule. This means these holdings cannot be sold on the secondary market in the short term, avoiding immediate selling pressure. Major buyers are long-term institutional investors led by Stotz, who purchase these tokens for long-term holding and staking, rather than for speculative trading.

More notably, Stotz emphasized that Telegram’s net holdings of TON tokens have not decreased significantly after sales—in fact, they may have increased. This is because Telegram has used some of its stockpile to distribute locked tokens and continues to earn new TON income through business activities like advertising revenue sharing. Overall, their holdings remain high.

This clever design of the boundary—meeting the need for token dispersion while maintaining long-term income—reflects Durov’s commitment to decentralization principles. These sales are conducted at a slight discount below market price and include lock-up and vesting periods to prevent short-term dumping, ensuring ecosystem stability.

Currently, TON’s market performance shows the token price has rebounded to $1.57, with a circulating market cap of $3.81 billion, reflecting market recognition of this mechanism and a gradual recovery from historic lows.

IPO Outlook and Reality: Smooth Financing but Regulatory Concerns Persist

This boundary issue extends to Telegram’s IPO plans. As financial performance improves and business diversifies, the company’s IPO prospects have become a market focus. The company has raised over $1 billion through multiple funding rounds, and in 2025, it issued an additional $1.7 billion in convertible bonds, attracting international institutions like BlackRock and Mubadala of Abu Dhabi.

These financings not only provide capital but are also seen as preparations for an IPO. Currently, Telegram has two main bonds: a $750 million bond with a 7% coupon maturing in March 2026, and a $950 million convertible bond with a 9% coupon maturing in 2030. Of the new $1.7 billion issuance, about $955 million is used to refinance existing debt, with $745 million for new capital.

The convertible bonds feature a special IPO conversion clause—if the company goes public before 2030, investors can redeem or convert at approximately 80% of the IPO price, representing a 20% discount. This indicates investors are betting on Telegram’s successful listing. Through debt refinancing in 2025, Telegram has already repaid or redeemed most of its bonds due in 2026, and Durov has publicly stated that the old debt from 2021 has been largely settled.

This means Telegram’s current debt burden is relatively manageable, and the listing window is relatively open. Many investors still expect the company to seek an IPO around 2026-2027, converting debt to equity and opening new financing channels.

However, this boundary—the balance between the listing plan and external environment—is under test. The ongoing legal proceedings against Durov in France remain unresolved, creating uncertainty about the timing of the IPO. Telegram has also openly acknowledged that ongoing investigations could pose obstacles.

Nevertheless, Telegram’s business fundamentals remain relatively solid. With approximately 1 billion monthly active users and an estimated 450 million daily active users, its large user base offers ample monetization potential. Durov emphasizes that the company’s sole shareholder remains himself, and creditors are not involved in governance, allowing the possibility of sacrificing short-term profits for long-term user engagement and ecosystem prosperity.

The boundary between TON and Telegram—how to maintain independence amid deep integration, and how to balance growth drivers with risk management—will be a long-term calibration challenge for both sides. This not only impacts Telegram’s IPO prospects but also concerns the health of the entire TON ecosystem.